Super late with this because of work craziness (how dare these pre-med students ask me for a letter, don't they know it's Derby week?), but here is the first part of my annual ramblings:
1. Dornoch
What to like: Well, for starters, he’s the only horse in the race to have ever defeated Sierra Leone. He did so in a very game Remsen effort, coming back on the inside after being passed and placed in very tight quarters by his rival. Indeed, Dornoch’s best races have one thing in common: controlling the pace from the inside. From that perspective, his rail draw might actually have been a blessing in disguise. Barring a poor break, he
will be on the lead, and it’s up to everyone else to catch him. We know how good speed is in the Derby, and what happens if a horse with his toughness and pedigree gets loose and sets a moderate pace?
What not to like: …well, even then, I’m not sure he’d really be competitive here. The Remsen was a really nice effort, but he rode a golden rail on that day and simply hasn’t moved forward from it. His Fountain of Youth was honestly pretty poor, as he had an absolutely perfect trip but was still all-out to defeat some bad opponents (beaten a combined 52 lengths in the Florida Derby) in slow time. He was a non-factor in the Blue Grass, and sure, you could say that it was because he had to rate. But it was pretty on-par with his previous races, figure-wise, and is it truly possible to imagine that he will improve ten lengths while setting a faster pace at a longer distance? I don’t even think it’s a guarantee that he makes the lead, because he’s a bigger-bodied horse who actually doesn’t have a ton of speed right out of the gate, and he might be standing in there for a loooong time. Recent reports of a quarter crack don’t help… I don’t want to dump on Dornoch because he’s a neat horse, and he has an important role to play in this race, but IMO he’s a
wildly unlikely winner.
Ideal trip: The other connections take time out of their Derby preparations to google TBC and read the above analysis. Finding it convincing, they decide to concede the lead to Dornoch, who blasts out of the gate and then sets fractions of :52 and 1:15 while several lengths clear. He turns for home five in front, and people start penning the “how could we let this happen?” thinkpieces before he’s even across the wire. I delete this post. Nobody will ever know.
How's the pedigree?: I mean, he’s a full brother to last year’s Derby winner. Enough said, though I will note that he is physically a very different horse from Mage.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field. Sorry, Dornoch.
2. Sierra Leone
What to like: Well, he’s really good. He has already beaten 30% of this field and hasn’t looked particularly pressed while doing so. He gobbles up ground with that enormous bounding stride, and he can both make a huge move on the turn and finish that move in the stretch. He always looks like he’s got plenty more to give at the wire, his figures are improving (and already competitive), and he’s been galloping beautifully at Churchill Downs this week. He has already outkicked most of the closers in this field despite rallying wide on a speed favoring track (Blue Grass) or wide into a very slow pace (Risen Star). Even his one losing effort was great—yes, Dornoch came back on him, but Dornoch was running on a conveyor belt rail while Sierra Leone had to rally widest of all and might have needed blinkers to give his best effort. I’ve been pretty critical of his paddling stride, but that isn’t a dealbreaker—Essential Quality paddled but could handle 10-12f just fine. Sierra Leone has a beautiful distance pedigree, he just looks like an enormous physical freak who is somehow still improving and figures to get a very fast pace to run at. If he saves ground from the 2 post and then tips out wide into the stretch with a clear running lane, who could possibly withstand him?
What not to like: Looking more closely at this horse, I actually ended up with a lot more reservations than I expected to. The gate antics thing doesn’t really bother me; he’s a closer, he ran great in the Blue Grass, I don’t think it matters all that much. But that huge body and huge stride mentioned above give me a lot more pause, because here’s the thing: Sierra Leone has
never once split horses. He sort of tried to in his debut, but he couldn’t really hit the spot and got yanked wide into an open lane afterwards. One of my notes from last year’s Derby says “Small and agile better for closers. Tapit Trice too big.” I believe that smaller-bodied, athletic horses like Mage, Mine that Bird, and Street Sense tend to fare much better in this race than the Curlins and Tapit Trices of the world, because if you’re a horse with a gigantic long stride, it can be really difficult to wind that stride all that way back up if you get steadied or knocked around. Now, will Sierra Leone actually need to split horses or adjust his rally? Maybe not; Gaffalione has always just parked him super wide and let him prove that he’s best. It isn’t impossible in the Derby, and it worked out just fine for Orb. But there are some good horses in this race who might get a better trip than that, and I don’t know if this one is so superior to them that he can give up all that ground. Moreover, I’m not actually convinced that he’ll love 10f—he has a very long stride, yes, but the paddling is still a concern. I’ve noticed that he paddles worse at the ends of his races—considered an indicator of tiredness—he tends to do so while lugging in very badly, and his last eighth in the Blue Grass was actually not all that fast. His pedigree says he should run all day, but is the ease with which he appears to finish actually just an illusion?
Ideal trip: ctrl + v: If he saves ground from the 2 post and then tips out wide into the stretch with a clear running lane, who could possibly withstand him?
How's the pedigree?: It’s gorgeous! Gun Runner up top, tons of class and distance underneath, couldn’t ask for more. And he’s even a cousin to Forever Young, which is just neat. Between his pedigree and his physicality, I can see why he cost $2.3 million as a yearling… though I wonder if the connections wanted their money back when they first watched him gallop
Least-surprising finish: Uhhh I’m going to say top 6. He’s crazy good, zero surprise if he wins, but I think it’s slightly more likely that he winds up as the “woulda won with a better trip” horse.
3. Mystik Dan
What to like: He’s neat! Dan has a Versatile running style and has shown spots of brilliance in his campaign thus far. His race in the Southwest produced the fastest non-Fierceness BSF of anyone in here, and it’s not like he didn’t earn it—yes, the rail was really good, but he got a genius ride from Brian Hernandez Jr., who trusted that his horse could handle being inside and prioritized saving ground over gaining a forward position. And Dan didn’t let his rider down, taking a faceful of mud and streaking up the rail to an enormous win. I like a horse who can rate inside and accelerate, and in keeping with what I wrote about Sierra Leone, this horse is small-bodied and capable of splitting horses and hitting gaps. He won big at Churchill with a huge BSF (96) last year, albeit at 5.5f, and even his race in the AK Derby wasn’t as bad as it looked—he lost a decent amount of position when Liberal Arts came out on him, and the race had a pretty forward flow. And if you like him, you’ll get some value on him.
What not to like: I’m not really sure what sort of trip he’s going to get here. He can rate behind horses, yes, but he doesn’t break super well and I think he’ll end up swallowed up by the field early on. This is one of the worst places to be in the Derby—how many horses get sucked into the scrum and never heard from again? But my main issue here is distance. His pedigree says he’ll be best at around a mile, he was super flat stretching out to 9f in the AK Derby, and he just doesn’t strike me as a horse who will be finishing strong in the last eighth of this race. And if you can’t get early position but also don’t have a ton of late foot, where does that leave you in the Derby?
Ideal trip: The pace doesn’t really develop, he breaks well and ends up saving ground just off the first flight, then he makes use of those rocket boosters he used in the Southwest!
How's the pedigree?: Well… Goldencents was a confirmed miler who possesses the worst AWD of all sires in the field. No siblings to compare, but the dam was a miler. Colonel John underneath MIGHT help, but
Least-surprising finish: Around midpack to back half of the top 10. He’s usable, he’s not a bad value play, and I know there are some big-name handicappers out there who really like him… but as the saying goes, I prefer others.
4. Catching Freedom
What to like: …and in fact, I prefer
this horse. Catching Freedom is the biggest story of the season, and nobody seems to realize it. Be honest… are we
sure this horse isn’t a clone of Angel of Empire? Smallish bay colt with turn of foot owned by the Albaughs and trained by Brad Cox, who initially didn’t think he was Derby quality? But whereas that horse was the favorite, here you’ll get 8-1 or perhaps even double digits on a horse who looks pretty much just as good coming in. This guy has everything I discussed above in entry #2—he’s agile, he’s versatile, he has a little bit of early foot but lots of late foot, can take dirt, re-rally, split horses, finish strong, you name it. Catching Freedom was outrun by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, but after being moving early, getting pinched late, and failing to swap leads, he caught my eye as a horse who clearly had more to give. And he gave plenty in the Louisiana Derby, sitting last behind a fairly moderate pace before swinging wide and mowing everyone down despite Honor Marie bothering him slightly. His figures have steadily improved as he has stretched out, and the LA Derby has been a really useful prep in recent years. Crucially, he swapped leads in that race and showed that he has matured from some of his earlier (and messier) races. He’s a very different physical specimen compared to Sierra Leone, but he has the same ability to run through both turns and the stretch, and he has a bit more positional speed early. He’s the sort of horse who could keep touch with the pack and then navigate through it turning for home under the guidance of his very talented jockey. He looks great galloping, his pedigree says 10f is within reach, he’s going to meet a truly fast pace for the very first time,
watch out.
What not to like: You just cannot ever count on closers in the Derby. Trip is always a gigantic question mark, but it’s especially concerning with a horse who drew inside but has a bit more early foot than some of his other rivals. He could end up in the morass of midpack horses, and he’s likely going to need a fabulous ride from Flavien Prat. Sometimes the gaps open up and sometimes they don’t, but at the end of the day, is he just a poor man’s Sierra Leone? That horse outran him once and figures to just roll up unimpeded on the outside. If they set down together at the top of the stretch, who do you want more? I also worry that Catching Freedom will fail to change leads again, and he does like to lug in and sort of wander around in the stretch. He’s referred to as “chaos horse” in my notes, and, well, the Derby has enough chaos as it is.
Ideal trip: Save ground midflight, split the pack and get a jump on the deep closers turning for home, then just keep rolling.
How's the pedigree?: Pretty darn good! Constitution is proving to be a versatile sire with a number of long-distance runners, the dam could run 9f and Pioneerof the Nile certainly doesn’t hurt underneath. Pedigree aligning with performance—what a concept!
Least-surprising finish: Top 5. This horse might get a little lost in the betting and has been taking a bit less money than Forever Young so far. I hope this trend continues, because he has an awfully good chance to win.
5. Catalytic
What to like: This horse might actually be pretty good? His connections have asked a lot, but he’s continued to give. He ran well in his first two races—both at 6f—with two completely different runstyles, pressing the pace in his debut and then coming from far out of it in his followup race. He was then asked to jump from 6f to 9f while stepping up in class in the Floriday Derby, and he actually improved in this race! It was hard to see in the video with Fierceness a mile out in front, but Catalytic finished well-clear of the others and saw a big BSF jump despite everything he had going against him. He could have another move forward in him, he picks up Jose Ortiz, his pedigree could be worse, and I think he does actually have some quality which will not be reflected in his post-time odds.
What not to like: He’s just giving up so many advantages to the other horses in here. Seasoning, speed, early positioning… I think he’ll be another horse stuck in the pack early, and it’s very difficult to imagine a scenario where he improves enough to hit the board going 10f. After all, he had a good trip in the Florida Derby and just couldn’t do a whole lot with it. His trainer is considered iffy outside of Gulfstream Park by a lot of people, and he has been pretty frank in interviews about the fact that this horse really needs to improve. Worst of all, his connections dumped Julien Leparoux—who gave a perfectly serviceable ride in the Florida Derby—for Jose Ortiz. If there’s one thing I know about the Derby, it’s that the Racing Gods are capricious entities who rarely reward that sort of behavior.
Ideal trip: I’m honestly not sure. It’s tough to tell much about his running style from his three races, but I think he wants to lay close in the second flight.
How's the pedigree?: Catalina Cruiser is still pretty new, but I would be pretty shocked if he proved to be a major stamina influence. Luckily for Catalytic, he’s got some help underneath with Distorted Humor, Holy Bull, and AP Indy all hanging out in a
gorgeous damside. I mean, this guy’s tail-female line traces back to La Troienne through the brilliantly fast Numbered Account. Why is his dam being bred to Catalina Cruiser, Runhappy, and Super Saver? I demand justice!
Least-surprising finish: Midpack to back half of the field, but there have been far worse Derby longshots. If you like him, don’t let me convince you otherwise!
