The Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis Thread
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
6. Just Steel
What to like: He’s just a likeable horse. Have been a fan of this guy since his maiden win, where he showed a lot of guts in defeating several very nice 2yos (and, crucially, he looked at me in the paddock). This guy is a real throwback-type with a big long and lanky body and a bunch of races under his belt, all of which tell the story of a horse who needed some time to figure things out but is now better than ever. He has held up to the Lukas schedule in a way that few horses do, and he has really started to thrive as the distances have gotten longer. Watching his early starts, it’s like seeing a different horse—he really used to pull early and give his riders a tough time, but these days he is much more relaxed and capable of laying off the speed. His race in the AK Derby was totally competitive with the best horses in here, but even his lesser efforts beforehand weren’t as bad as they appear. In the Southwest, he drew post 11 against a golden rail, and his trip in the Rebel was just silly—he was caught five wide on both turns and have every right to fade. He's just a tough horse, he’s fairly tough to pass, Lukas has him working a mile in preparation for this race, and the price will be right.
What not to like: Somehow, despite running in a dozen races, he has only run inside horses once. In pretty much every other start, he has parked outside and lost a ton of ground, often to his own detriment. The one major exception was the Breeders’ Futurity last year, in which he got stuck inside behind the pace and HATED it, pulling to the front and then fading late. He seems to have matured since then, and he doesn’t pull nearly as much, but is that just because he hasn’t had to take any dirt? It’s a huge question, because he’s unlikely to get a clean outside trip here and may become yet another member of the bumpercar Derby pack. And while Just Steel has certainly had some excuses, he has also been inarguably inconsistent—his best race makes him competitive here, but how likely is it that we’ll actually see that race? Lastly, Mike Welsch didn’t like his mile workout, and I would trust Mike Welsch with my life and the life of… eh… some of my mid-tier coworkers.
Ideal trip: Second flight, work his way a bit outside if possible, get in front turning for home and refuse to be passed.
How's the pedigree?: Justify hasn’t had any Classic-distance dirt titans yet, but it feels pretty likely that he will at some point. The dam was a turf sprinter, and in fact there’s a lot of turf underneath, including his fabulous damsire Fastnet Rock. This horse preferred shorter distances but did sire some 12f Classic winners (on turf), and you’ve got the classy producer Portage a few generations back in the tail-female line. Overall a bit of an enigma--I wonder if he ends up on turf after Lukas runs out of Classic races to throw him into.
Least-surprising finish: Oh man. None? Can I say none? No? Okay fine. Back half of the top 10, but totally usable underneath. Plus some bonus points because I like him.
7. Honor Marie
What to like: Well he won on debut going 6f, and you don’t often see that from Classic closers. He’s very familiar with Churchill Downs, having raced here three times, and he won the Jockey Club with a strong 2yo BSF in November. And, importantly, he has shown some major improvement since stretching out. In the Risen Star, he raced way too far back early for essentially no reason, conceding a huge advantage to Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. He still kept coming in the stretch and finished pretty well, then he later made a very solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. I mentioned above that I really like this race as a prep, and I love Catching Freedom I have to at least like Honor Marie, right? This guy’s latest work was much quicker than you’d expect from a dedicated closer, he’s picked up a new jockey ho seems to gel with him, and he’s finally going to encounter a truly fast pace. This race has some quality closers in it, and this guy is no exception.
What not to like: …but is he truly as good as the others? Watching all of these horse’s races, I just couldn’t help feeling like Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone are a step ahead of this horse. He’s lost to both of them—twice, in the case of Catching Freedom—and while neither races were poor efforts, it just seemed a bit like he had his chance and couldn’t quite go with them. He even slightly bothered Catching Freedom after getting a jump on that foe in the LA Derby, then still couldn’t quite match him late. If the pace is hot and all horses get an equally decent trip, is this really the horse you would want a they turn for home? He has the CD wins but the Jockey Club was not a strong race, as none of those horses have been even remotely competitive on the Derby trail. I’d say that Honor Marie at least offers more value than Catching Freedom, but he has garnered a ton of attention from handicappers and could potentially end up around 12-1. And we all know there is no greater imposition, no heavier crown, than the title of Kentucky Derby Wise Guy horse.
Ideal trip: He just needs to avoid traffic, get a clean run in the stretch, and maybe hope that Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone get stuck inside horses.
How's the pedigree?: I’m agnostic on Honor Code as a distance sire, and I like to see Smart Strike underneath, but this horse’s pedigree is weirdly turfy. His action doesn’t scream turf to me, but his damside is absolutely inundated with it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up on that surface eventually.
Least-surprising finish: I’m going to say… middle part of the top 10, maybe like 3rd-7th. I think he’s totally feasible, he’s a really neat horse, I get why people like him, but I just don’t share in the enthusiasm at his likely price.
8. Just a Touch
What to like: And speaking of wise guy horses… this one has shown a ton of talent and promise in his mere three starts, and he follows a race pattern that is quite similar to the one Mage exhibited last year. His Gotham was a stellar effort, as he stretched out from 6f to 8f off a very long layoff and still held his own against a very good Deterministic. He took another jump forward in the Blue Grass, pressing a very hot pace and then making Sierra Leone work for the win in the stretch. His BSF from that race is competitive with most of the best in here, and with only a handful of starts on his resume, a move forward in his next race is totally within reason. He's got a great versatile runstyle and with a bunch of closers drawn to his inside, he could get a sweet stalking spot right behind Dornoch. This horse just seems to handle whatever you throw at him, speed is always dangerous in the Derby, and his upside could be massive.
What not to like: Let me sum it up in three names: Verifying, Smile Happy, and Highly Motivated. All three were forwardly placed in the Blue Grass, passed late in the stretch by a Derby favorite, and then bizarrely bet down in the Derby for reasons that I still can’t quite grasp. And all three of them failed to hit the board. I see and acknowledge his talent, but I just cannot separate Just a Touch from these other horses. Horses who get passed in their final Derby prep simply do not run well in the Derby, and it’s not like the Blue Grass was some crazy meltdown that fell apart late—Keeneland was kind to speed that day, as it often is, and Sierra Leone was the only horse who did any late running. If Just a Touch got passed by one closer after being part of a fast pace, how is he going to hold off even more closers in a faster and longer race? He’s playing catch-up with the others, and I suppose you could argue that he could get a good trip if he sits in a good spot as the pace fails to develop… but in that scenario, odds are pretty good that he’ll have Fierceness alongside him as they turn for home, and that present its own set of troubles.
Ideal trip: Fierceness breaks last, Dornoch sets a moderate pace but gets some separation, Just a Touch sits back right off of him and gets first run as they turn for home.
How's the pedigree?: See above for Justify. Tapit is nice enough underneath, and then I really can’t judge more than that because his damside is… really something. Gonna be honest, this might be the first time I’ve seen Carr de Naskra, Talc, and… [reads smudged writing on hand] Ikari? in a G1 pedigree. Looking at pedigrees typically makes me feel old, so bless this horse for achieving the opposite.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack to back half of the field. He’s good! But I just don’t think this is his race.
10. T O Password
What to like: His last work was nice, and he outworked a horse who just stunned everyone in the Alysheba. Both of his races have been wins at 9f in fairly large fields, and his later victory was actually comparable, in terms of Timeform ratings, to Forever Young. He could be anything, really. His trainer is realistic about the fact that he probably can’t compete with the speed here. Um. He’s very pretty! I like his workout goggles!
What not to like: He’s only had two races, in both of the them he was forwardly placed, he had a pretty soft trip in his last and only just barely held on for the win. He’s making a gigantic jump in class while shipping halfway across the globe and conceding a ton of experience, and he’s going to take dirt for the first time while he’s at it. That’s… that’s a lot. And with T O Saint Denis’s performance today, he’s going to take more money than he would otherwise.
Ideal trip: I honestly don’t know
How's the pedigree?: I honestly don’t know
Least-surprising finish: Last-ish, but I’d love to be wrong.
11. Forever Young
What to like: This horse is good! He’s undefeated, and he’s not undefeated because he’s been taking the easy road. Forever Young looked like a very special horse with some scintillating wins in Japan as a 2yo, and I wasn’t surprised to learn that he’s the highest-rated dirt 2yo in Japanese history. He made those races look easy, but all of us should know by now (especially after watching the Alysheba!) that Japanese horses are serious contenders on dirt, so he wasn’t exactly beating up on nobodies. Forever Young then shipped to Saudi Arabia, apparently had some issues during shipping but was still relentless in that race, wearing down a nice horse in the last few strides. In the UAE Derby he was held out very wide on a day when the rail was very good; he still ran down a pretty nice older horse while finishing the 9.5f like he could have gone further. He has sat behind and inside horses, lost ground, showed early foot, come from last, stalked the pace, but no matter the trip he just always finds more in the stretch. There’s been a lot of talk of this horse’s dislike of kickback, but he did take kickback in Japan, he still won, and I’ve also heard it said that Japanese dirt is stingier than American dirt. His trainer is a legend, and has won on American dirt with far less likely horses than this. T O Saint Denis made everyone sit up and recognize that the Japanese runners are here to win. Is it finally Japan’s year?
What not to like: …heck if I know. Like Derma Sotogake last year, there are just so many questions surrounding this horse. His efforts have been really admirable, but according to Timeform they haven’t been particularly fast. The Dubai route just hasn’t worked out for anyone in the past, and if he shipped poorly once, isn’t it possible that he shipped poorly again? Opinions have been mixed about this horse’s morning appearance, and although most observers aren’t really qualified to comment on him, he certainly hasn’t been a head-turner. Trip is always a huge question for non-American horses, because although Forever Young has been facing big fields, there truly is nothing like the Derby anywhere else in the world. Will he have to handle kickback? Will he be caught wide? Will his jockey pull a Lemaire and completely misjudge the pace? And, at the end of the day, is this horse’s best race truly good enough?
Ideal trip: I think he’ll want to relax in the clear towards midpack, avoiding kickback while traveling two or three dee.
How's the pedigree?: I’m not really the best person to ask… but he’s closely relate to Sierra Leone on his female side, so that seems like a pretty good sign!
Least-surprising finish: I always get suckered in by the Dubai-route horse… but I’m trying to change. Last year I didn’t love Derma but couldn’t toss him, and he somehow sort of ran to those expectations. I feel pretty similarly about this guy: really good horse, huge question marks, would love it if he won, would feel terrible if he won without being on my tickets. I’m going to say that I think he’ll mostly likely finish towards the middle of the top half, maybe filling out a tri or super, but I wouldn’t be shocked by a win and will try to account for that possibility in my tickets.
What to like: He’s just a likeable horse. Have been a fan of this guy since his maiden win, where he showed a lot of guts in defeating several very nice 2yos (and, crucially, he looked at me in the paddock). This guy is a real throwback-type with a big long and lanky body and a bunch of races under his belt, all of which tell the story of a horse who needed some time to figure things out but is now better than ever. He has held up to the Lukas schedule in a way that few horses do, and he has really started to thrive as the distances have gotten longer. Watching his early starts, it’s like seeing a different horse—he really used to pull early and give his riders a tough time, but these days he is much more relaxed and capable of laying off the speed. His race in the AK Derby was totally competitive with the best horses in here, but even his lesser efforts beforehand weren’t as bad as they appear. In the Southwest, he drew post 11 against a golden rail, and his trip in the Rebel was just silly—he was caught five wide on both turns and have every right to fade. He's just a tough horse, he’s fairly tough to pass, Lukas has him working a mile in preparation for this race, and the price will be right.
What not to like: Somehow, despite running in a dozen races, he has only run inside horses once. In pretty much every other start, he has parked outside and lost a ton of ground, often to his own detriment. The one major exception was the Breeders’ Futurity last year, in which he got stuck inside behind the pace and HATED it, pulling to the front and then fading late. He seems to have matured since then, and he doesn’t pull nearly as much, but is that just because he hasn’t had to take any dirt? It’s a huge question, because he’s unlikely to get a clean outside trip here and may become yet another member of the bumpercar Derby pack. And while Just Steel has certainly had some excuses, he has also been inarguably inconsistent—his best race makes him competitive here, but how likely is it that we’ll actually see that race? Lastly, Mike Welsch didn’t like his mile workout, and I would trust Mike Welsch with my life and the life of… eh… some of my mid-tier coworkers.
Ideal trip: Second flight, work his way a bit outside if possible, get in front turning for home and refuse to be passed.
How's the pedigree?: Justify hasn’t had any Classic-distance dirt titans yet, but it feels pretty likely that he will at some point. The dam was a turf sprinter, and in fact there’s a lot of turf underneath, including his fabulous damsire Fastnet Rock. This horse preferred shorter distances but did sire some 12f Classic winners (on turf), and you’ve got the classy producer Portage a few generations back in the tail-female line. Overall a bit of an enigma--I wonder if he ends up on turf after Lukas runs out of Classic races to throw him into.
Least-surprising finish: Oh man. None? Can I say none? No? Okay fine. Back half of the top 10, but totally usable underneath. Plus some bonus points because I like him.
7. Honor Marie
What to like: Well he won on debut going 6f, and you don’t often see that from Classic closers. He’s very familiar with Churchill Downs, having raced here three times, and he won the Jockey Club with a strong 2yo BSF in November. And, importantly, he has shown some major improvement since stretching out. In the Risen Star, he raced way too far back early for essentially no reason, conceding a huge advantage to Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. He still kept coming in the stretch and finished pretty well, then he later made a very solid effort in the Louisiana Derby. I mentioned above that I really like this race as a prep, and I love Catching Freedom I have to at least like Honor Marie, right? This guy’s latest work was much quicker than you’d expect from a dedicated closer, he’s picked up a new jockey ho seems to gel with him, and he’s finally going to encounter a truly fast pace. This race has some quality closers in it, and this guy is no exception.
What not to like: …but is he truly as good as the others? Watching all of these horse’s races, I just couldn’t help feeling like Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone are a step ahead of this horse. He’s lost to both of them—twice, in the case of Catching Freedom—and while neither races were poor efforts, it just seemed a bit like he had his chance and couldn’t quite go with them. He even slightly bothered Catching Freedom after getting a jump on that foe in the LA Derby, then still couldn’t quite match him late. If the pace is hot and all horses get an equally decent trip, is this really the horse you would want a they turn for home? He has the CD wins but the Jockey Club was not a strong race, as none of those horses have been even remotely competitive on the Derby trail. I’d say that Honor Marie at least offers more value than Catching Freedom, but he has garnered a ton of attention from handicappers and could potentially end up around 12-1. And we all know there is no greater imposition, no heavier crown, than the title of Kentucky Derby Wise Guy horse.
Ideal trip: He just needs to avoid traffic, get a clean run in the stretch, and maybe hope that Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone get stuck inside horses.
How's the pedigree?: I’m agnostic on Honor Code as a distance sire, and I like to see Smart Strike underneath, but this horse’s pedigree is weirdly turfy. His action doesn’t scream turf to me, but his damside is absolutely inundated with it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up on that surface eventually.
Least-surprising finish: I’m going to say… middle part of the top 10, maybe like 3rd-7th. I think he’s totally feasible, he’s a really neat horse, I get why people like him, but I just don’t share in the enthusiasm at his likely price.
8. Just a Touch
What to like: And speaking of wise guy horses… this one has shown a ton of talent and promise in his mere three starts, and he follows a race pattern that is quite similar to the one Mage exhibited last year. His Gotham was a stellar effort, as he stretched out from 6f to 8f off a very long layoff and still held his own against a very good Deterministic. He took another jump forward in the Blue Grass, pressing a very hot pace and then making Sierra Leone work for the win in the stretch. His BSF from that race is competitive with most of the best in here, and with only a handful of starts on his resume, a move forward in his next race is totally within reason. He's got a great versatile runstyle and with a bunch of closers drawn to his inside, he could get a sweet stalking spot right behind Dornoch. This horse just seems to handle whatever you throw at him, speed is always dangerous in the Derby, and his upside could be massive.
What not to like: Let me sum it up in three names: Verifying, Smile Happy, and Highly Motivated. All three were forwardly placed in the Blue Grass, passed late in the stretch by a Derby favorite, and then bizarrely bet down in the Derby for reasons that I still can’t quite grasp. And all three of them failed to hit the board. I see and acknowledge his talent, but I just cannot separate Just a Touch from these other horses. Horses who get passed in their final Derby prep simply do not run well in the Derby, and it’s not like the Blue Grass was some crazy meltdown that fell apart late—Keeneland was kind to speed that day, as it often is, and Sierra Leone was the only horse who did any late running. If Just a Touch got passed by one closer after being part of a fast pace, how is he going to hold off even more closers in a faster and longer race? He’s playing catch-up with the others, and I suppose you could argue that he could get a good trip if he sits in a good spot as the pace fails to develop… but in that scenario, odds are pretty good that he’ll have Fierceness alongside him as they turn for home, and that present its own set of troubles.
Ideal trip: Fierceness breaks last, Dornoch sets a moderate pace but gets some separation, Just a Touch sits back right off of him and gets first run as they turn for home.
How's the pedigree?: See above for Justify. Tapit is nice enough underneath, and then I really can’t judge more than that because his damside is… really something. Gonna be honest, this might be the first time I’ve seen Carr de Naskra, Talc, and… [reads smudged writing on hand] Ikari? in a G1 pedigree. Looking at pedigrees typically makes me feel old, so bless this horse for achieving the opposite.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack to back half of the field. He’s good! But I just don’t think this is his race.
10. T O Password
What to like: His last work was nice, and he outworked a horse who just stunned everyone in the Alysheba. Both of his races have been wins at 9f in fairly large fields, and his later victory was actually comparable, in terms of Timeform ratings, to Forever Young. He could be anything, really. His trainer is realistic about the fact that he probably can’t compete with the speed here. Um. He’s very pretty! I like his workout goggles!
What not to like: He’s only had two races, in both of the them he was forwardly placed, he had a pretty soft trip in his last and only just barely held on for the win. He’s making a gigantic jump in class while shipping halfway across the globe and conceding a ton of experience, and he’s going to take dirt for the first time while he’s at it. That’s… that’s a lot. And with T O Saint Denis’s performance today, he’s going to take more money than he would otherwise.
Ideal trip: I honestly don’t know
How's the pedigree?: I honestly don’t know
Least-surprising finish: Last-ish, but I’d love to be wrong.
11. Forever Young
What to like: This horse is good! He’s undefeated, and he’s not undefeated because he’s been taking the easy road. Forever Young looked like a very special horse with some scintillating wins in Japan as a 2yo, and I wasn’t surprised to learn that he’s the highest-rated dirt 2yo in Japanese history. He made those races look easy, but all of us should know by now (especially after watching the Alysheba!) that Japanese horses are serious contenders on dirt, so he wasn’t exactly beating up on nobodies. Forever Young then shipped to Saudi Arabia, apparently had some issues during shipping but was still relentless in that race, wearing down a nice horse in the last few strides. In the UAE Derby he was held out very wide on a day when the rail was very good; he still ran down a pretty nice older horse while finishing the 9.5f like he could have gone further. He has sat behind and inside horses, lost ground, showed early foot, come from last, stalked the pace, but no matter the trip he just always finds more in the stretch. There’s been a lot of talk of this horse’s dislike of kickback, but he did take kickback in Japan, he still won, and I’ve also heard it said that Japanese dirt is stingier than American dirt. His trainer is a legend, and has won on American dirt with far less likely horses than this. T O Saint Denis made everyone sit up and recognize that the Japanese runners are here to win. Is it finally Japan’s year?
What not to like: …heck if I know. Like Derma Sotogake last year, there are just so many questions surrounding this horse. His efforts have been really admirable, but according to Timeform they haven’t been particularly fast. The Dubai route just hasn’t worked out for anyone in the past, and if he shipped poorly once, isn’t it possible that he shipped poorly again? Opinions have been mixed about this horse’s morning appearance, and although most observers aren’t really qualified to comment on him, he certainly hasn’t been a head-turner. Trip is always a huge question for non-American horses, because although Forever Young has been facing big fields, there truly is nothing like the Derby anywhere else in the world. Will he have to handle kickback? Will he be caught wide? Will his jockey pull a Lemaire and completely misjudge the pace? And, at the end of the day, is this horse’s best race truly good enough?
Ideal trip: I think he’ll want to relax in the clear towards midpack, avoiding kickback while traveling two or three dee.
How's the pedigree?: I’m not really the best person to ask… but he’s closely relate to Sierra Leone on his female side, so that seems like a pretty good sign!
Least-surprising finish: I always get suckered in by the Dubai-route horse… but I’m trying to change. Last year I didn’t love Derma but couldn’t toss him, and he somehow sort of ran to those expectations. I feel pretty similarly about this guy: really good horse, huge question marks, would love it if he won, would feel terrible if he won without being on my tickets. I’m going to say that I think he’ll mostly likely finish towards the middle of the top half, maybe filling out a tri or super, but I wouldn’t be shocked by a win and will try to account for that possibility in my tickets.
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
12. Track Phantom
What to like: He’s got speed, and if Dornoch doesn’t break he’s the most likely leader. He’s not easy to pass, and he ran Sierra Leone to a half-length earlier this season. Um. I like his name?
What not to like: He set a very slow pace in the Risen Star, and Sierra Leone caught him. He set a moderate pace in the Lousiana Derby, and both Catching Freedom and Honor Marie caught him. I just cannot envision a scenario in which this horse improves by several lengths going 10f against horses who have already beaten him under ideal conditions. I guess the blinkers could improve him, but it’s just as likely that they make him less relaxed early and completely tank his chances.
Ideal trip: The blinkers relax him so much that he enters a state of zen, and forgets that the race is 10f.
How's the pedigree?: Quality Road sired a Preakness winner last year, but that horse had a lot more help underneath. Track Phantom’s damside is all speed all the time: his dam was a sprinter, his brother is a sprinter, his granddam was a sprinter who threw sprinters. Pedigree and performance both suggest that 10f will be outside of this horse’s scope.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack to back half of the field. He’s a really cool horse, and I don’t think he’ll completely throw in the towel, but this is not his race.
13. West Saratoga
What to like: He had a win at CD last year. His lesser efforts have some excuses; he stumbled a little at the start in the Davis and then maybe moved a bit too early. He then broke a bit sideways in the Jeff Ruby, was kept wide again and moved a bit early again. He has some more speed than you might expect, and that will probably be helpful here. Most importantly, he has the best story in the race, and we know how the Racing Gods feel about unlikely connections in the Derby.
What not to like: It pains me to say it, but he’s just slow. In ten races, he’s never managed any Beyer greater than an 85, and that came on synth. He doesn’t break well, he paddles badly, he took a while to switch leads in the Jeff Ruby and the pack was coming to get him late. He has not looked like much in the mornings according to Mike Welsch, and I just can’t envision this horse moving forward at 10f.
Ideal trip: Break well and get position, just like everyone else wants to.
How's the pedigree?: Well I’m thrilled to see personal favorite Exaggerator with a Derby horse! He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a sire, but you have to think that he won’t hurt here. Uncle Mo and Candy Ride might provide some stretch-out speed underneath, but the female family seems to lean towards precocity. Perhaps this is because Mother Goose is hiding out in his tail-female line, how cool is that!
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field… but would love to be proven wrong.
14. Endlessly
What to like: He’s a nice horse… on turf.
What not to like: Listen, I only have so much time left on this planet. I’d rather not spend it evaluating a horse whose trainer has all but stated “we have no chance, I wish we were running in a turf race, please somebody help me” in the leadup to the race.
Ideal trip: Turf
How's the pedigree?: Turf
Least-surprising finish: Turf
15. Domestic Product
What to like: We haven’t really seen what this horse is capable of, have we? He was compromised by outrageously slow paces in his two preps, and he did manage to beat Fierceness in one of them. He comes in fresh off that Tampa Bay effort, and he has looked fabulous while keeping Sierra Leone company in the mornings. He’s a beautiful robust horse who will not be knocked around easily, and he has one of the best jockeys in the game. His figures have not been fast, but figures are impacted by pace—and who knows what this horse is capable of at his best?
What not to like: I kind of feel like he’d be sitting at double his price if he had an actual final prep. The pace was very slow in the TB Derby, but I just think he should have been better in that race. He’ll get a faster pace in here, but what if that just leaves him in a hopeless spot far back early? He hasn’t really shown that he’s a closer, and I worry that he’s been forward in his last few races simply because the other horses haven’t run very fast. I don’t like that he is coming in off a layoff, I don’t think he has a distance stride, and I don’t really like his pedigree. I just have no idea how much more this horse has to give, and that isn’t a great feeling in the Kentucky Derby!
Ideal trip: I’m honestly not sure. He settles somewhere in the second flight and makes a run at a quick pace?
How's the pedigree?: Ehhhhh. Practical Joke is unlikely to be a Classic sire with that 6.5f AWD (worst in the field), Paynter might help a bit as the damsire, but then you’ve got a Sprint winner and a fair amount of fast progeny elsewhere on the damside. I think ~8f may prove this horse’s best distance, especially given the way he moves (which actually reminds me quite a bit of his sire).
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field. I tossed his sire (who ran pretty well in the Derby, albeit with a beautiful trip), and the family tradition will continue this year.
16. Grand Mo the First
What to like: I expected to just toss this guy without a second though, but there’s some good stuff in his past performances! His figures have improved as he’s switched to dirt routing, and in the Tampa Bay Derby he finished pretty much on even terms with Domestic Product, who is going to end up at like half his price. His pedigree I fine and he always just sort of finds a way to compete. He’s actually not that bad!
What not to like: His Florida Derby really was that bad. He was a little wide, sure, but he just showed nothing at all in the stretch. He’s unlikely to find good positioning in this race, and he needs to improve by leaps and bounds to make an impact on it. Just don’t see it.
Ideal trip: Break well, find a spot in the very popular second flight, and then game it to the wire?
How's the pedigree?: Pretty good, actually! Uncle Mo doesn’t scream distance, but he has sired a Derby and Belmont winner, and most of his half-siblings have done pretty well in the 8-9.5f range. This makes sense, because Giant’s Causeway is his damsire, and his granddam produced the classy runners Materiality and My Miss Sophia. You could do worse for a longshot Derby pedigree! You could probably also do better… but you could certainly do worse.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.
What to like: He’s got speed, and if Dornoch doesn’t break he’s the most likely leader. He’s not easy to pass, and he ran Sierra Leone to a half-length earlier this season. Um. I like his name?
What not to like: He set a very slow pace in the Risen Star, and Sierra Leone caught him. He set a moderate pace in the Lousiana Derby, and both Catching Freedom and Honor Marie caught him. I just cannot envision a scenario in which this horse improves by several lengths going 10f against horses who have already beaten him under ideal conditions. I guess the blinkers could improve him, but it’s just as likely that they make him less relaxed early and completely tank his chances.
Ideal trip: The blinkers relax him so much that he enters a state of zen, and forgets that the race is 10f.
How's the pedigree?: Quality Road sired a Preakness winner last year, but that horse had a lot more help underneath. Track Phantom’s damside is all speed all the time: his dam was a sprinter, his brother is a sprinter, his granddam was a sprinter who threw sprinters. Pedigree and performance both suggest that 10f will be outside of this horse’s scope.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack to back half of the field. He’s a really cool horse, and I don’t think he’ll completely throw in the towel, but this is not his race.
13. West Saratoga
What to like: He had a win at CD last year. His lesser efforts have some excuses; he stumbled a little at the start in the Davis and then maybe moved a bit too early. He then broke a bit sideways in the Jeff Ruby, was kept wide again and moved a bit early again. He has some more speed than you might expect, and that will probably be helpful here. Most importantly, he has the best story in the race, and we know how the Racing Gods feel about unlikely connections in the Derby.
What not to like: It pains me to say it, but he’s just slow. In ten races, he’s never managed any Beyer greater than an 85, and that came on synth. He doesn’t break well, he paddles badly, he took a while to switch leads in the Jeff Ruby and the pack was coming to get him late. He has not looked like much in the mornings according to Mike Welsch, and I just can’t envision this horse moving forward at 10f.
Ideal trip: Break well and get position, just like everyone else wants to.
How's the pedigree?: Well I’m thrilled to see personal favorite Exaggerator with a Derby horse! He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a sire, but you have to think that he won’t hurt here. Uncle Mo and Candy Ride might provide some stretch-out speed underneath, but the female family seems to lean towards precocity. Perhaps this is because Mother Goose is hiding out in his tail-female line, how cool is that!
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field… but would love to be proven wrong.
14. Endlessly
What to like: He’s a nice horse… on turf.
What not to like: Listen, I only have so much time left on this planet. I’d rather not spend it evaluating a horse whose trainer has all but stated “we have no chance, I wish we were running in a turf race, please somebody help me” in the leadup to the race.
Ideal trip: Turf
How's the pedigree?: Turf
Least-surprising finish: Turf
15. Domestic Product
What to like: We haven’t really seen what this horse is capable of, have we? He was compromised by outrageously slow paces in his two preps, and he did manage to beat Fierceness in one of them. He comes in fresh off that Tampa Bay effort, and he has looked fabulous while keeping Sierra Leone company in the mornings. He’s a beautiful robust horse who will not be knocked around easily, and he has one of the best jockeys in the game. His figures have not been fast, but figures are impacted by pace—and who knows what this horse is capable of at his best?
What not to like: I kind of feel like he’d be sitting at double his price if he had an actual final prep. The pace was very slow in the TB Derby, but I just think he should have been better in that race. He’ll get a faster pace in here, but what if that just leaves him in a hopeless spot far back early? He hasn’t really shown that he’s a closer, and I worry that he’s been forward in his last few races simply because the other horses haven’t run very fast. I don’t like that he is coming in off a layoff, I don’t think he has a distance stride, and I don’t really like his pedigree. I just have no idea how much more this horse has to give, and that isn’t a great feeling in the Kentucky Derby!
Ideal trip: I’m honestly not sure. He settles somewhere in the second flight and makes a run at a quick pace?
How's the pedigree?: Ehhhhh. Practical Joke is unlikely to be a Classic sire with that 6.5f AWD (worst in the field), Paynter might help a bit as the damsire, but then you’ve got a Sprint winner and a fair amount of fast progeny elsewhere on the damside. I think ~8f may prove this horse’s best distance, especially given the way he moves (which actually reminds me quite a bit of his sire).
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field. I tossed his sire (who ran pretty well in the Derby, albeit with a beautiful trip), and the family tradition will continue this year.
16. Grand Mo the First
What to like: I expected to just toss this guy without a second though, but there’s some good stuff in his past performances! His figures have improved as he’s switched to dirt routing, and in the Tampa Bay Derby he finished pretty much on even terms with Domestic Product, who is going to end up at like half his price. His pedigree I fine and he always just sort of finds a way to compete. He’s actually not that bad!
What not to like: His Florida Derby really was that bad. He was a little wide, sure, but he just showed nothing at all in the stretch. He’s unlikely to find good positioning in this race, and he needs to improve by leaps and bounds to make an impact on it. Just don’t see it.
Ideal trip: Break well, find a spot in the very popular second flight, and then game it to the wire?
How's the pedigree?: Pretty good, actually! Uncle Mo doesn’t scream distance, but he has sired a Derby and Belmont winner, and most of his half-siblings have done pretty well in the 8-9.5f range. This makes sense, because Giant’s Causeway is his damsire, and his granddam produced the classy runners Materiality and My Miss Sophia. You could do worse for a longshot Derby pedigree! You could probably also do better… but you could certainly do worse.
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
17. Fierceness
What to like: I don’t think I need to spend a lot of time here talking about how fast this horse is. He’s crazy fast, he’s crazy good, we all know it. He was faster as a 2yo than any of these other horses have been at 3. And he moved forward from it. So I want to focus on the races that weren’t spectacular blowouts instead. I feel like the narrative has tilted a bit excessively in one direction here, because this horse’s losses actually weren’t that bad! In the Champagne he lunged at the start, sure, but that isn’t the whole story: he was then pinballed, bothered repeatedly, steadied, taken up, and then swung wide for the turn. The beaten lengths on this race might lead you to think that he gave up, but he didn’t! He actually made a big wide move in hand on the turn, then hit a wall before being wrapped up in the stretch. I see a lot of parallels with his Holy Bull, which also wasn’t really that bad. He was pinballed all over the place at the start, hustled up super wide for no real reason, then grabbed back off a very slow pace. I think he was actually quite kind to Johnny V in here—he had his ears up despite running slow in the clear, which a lot of horses hate—and once again he made a big wide move on the turn before just hitting a wall late. He ran like a short horse, but we know for a fact that he isn’t short for the Derby. His last work was absolute perfection and featured a gigantic gallop out, and although some people hate the way he’s been galloping, I haven’t seen any concern from observers who are more familiar with him. He’s a very chill horse who doesn’t need the lead and won’t fight his rider, and few riders can gauge the Derby pace better than the venerable Johnny V. And did I mention that Fierceness is really fast? Because he's really fast.
What not to like: I would love to know how this horse earned his name, because he’s tiny, mellow, and totally unassuming at anything slower than a full gallop. He’ so small that he’s been easily knocked around in prior starts, and a horse has to be able to hold their ground in the Derby. He could lose his chances at the start, but even if he breaks well, what happens if he gets hung super wide on a hot pace? And what happens when Sierra Leone ranges up on him turning for home? He has never truly looked another horse in the eye in the stretch. What happens when Fierceness has to fight?
Ideal trip: Just stay out of trouble on the outside of the speed and prove better than everyone in the stretch. Fierceness is looking to join the ranks of winning Derby favorites like Big Brown and American Pharoah—a Big Brown or American Pharoah trip is all he should need, if he’s good enough.
How's the pedigree?: A bit unproven. City of Light was an insanely talented horse who probably could have gotten 10f just fine on his best day; he’s still too new of a sire to evaluate here, but he did just have a 12f winner (on turf) in Chop Chop last week. The dam was a sprinter with no other offspring to race, and the damsire was a Travers winner who has produced few graded stakes-quality horses and possesses a fairly wretched 6.8f AWD, one of the worst in the field. But then you’ve got Empire Maker and Holy Bull lurking back there… as with all other elements of this horse, it really comes down to your own judgment of him.
Least-surprising finish: Top 5. I know a lot of people are betting him as all-or-nothing, but I think he could absolutely lose while running a heroic race to hit the board. And sure, he could run last… but we might also look back on this race years from now and ask “how the heck was Fierceness only 3-1?”
18. Stronghold
What to like: He’s tough, he’s neat, he’s very consistent. He can relax behind horses, he can split them and fight to the wire. Imagination is a decent horse and this guy was simply better than him. I get the impression that he has just always gives his best effort in every race that he runs.
What not to like: …that effort just isn’t very fast, unfortunately. His figures are quite poor, and I don’t see any forward move in him because he isn’t exactly winning these races with ease. And his competition has not been strong: the second-place horse in the Sunland Derby won his next start at Sunland with a 71 beyer. Three others from the race attempted four different Derby preps… they were beaten a total of 49 lengths in those efforts. And Imagination is a decent horse, but is anyone under the illusion that he’s a Baffert A-teamer? Stronghold got a pretty good trip in the SA Derby, and considering his pedigree, I just don’t think he’s going to show us anything better while stretching out.
Ideal trip: I keep saying it but it keeps being true… break well, get over, save as much ground as possible while laying off the pace.
How's the pedigree?: There’s no real question that Ghostzapper can get distance horses, which is good, because Stronghold needs all the help he can get. You could make a pretty competitive sprint race out of the names on his damside: Jimmy Creed vs. Henny Hughes vs. Swiss Yodeler, place your bets!
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.
19. Resilience
What to like: He’s just neat! How can you not like this horse? An improving colt for Bill Mott, looked good with blinkers on the Wood Memorial, and he’s been working really well at CD in preparation for this event. He has a beautiful pedigree and just feels like a horse who has yet to show us his best race.
What not to like: …but what if the Wood Memorial really was his best? I wonder if this performance was more due to the company than the horse. On figures it was pretty much the same as his Risen Star, in which he just wasn’t as good as three other Derby competitors. Resilience also got a very sweet trip in the Wood, and he won’t get that trip here. I would love to see him succeed, but I just don’t quite think he fits in the top tier yet. I don’t love the way he drifted in during the stretch run of the Wood, I don’t think he has a 10f dirt stride, and I suspect he’ll end up on turf eventually.
Ideal trip: [see Stronghold]
How's the pedigree?: Good. I don’t think I will ever buy Into Mischief as a distance influence, no matter how many Derby winners he sires, but it really doesn’t matter here. Resilience’s half-brother is a router and then you have Smart Strike as the damsire and the incredibly classy distance mare Tranquility Lake two generations back. His tail-female line traces all the way back to Pochahontas, and he’s just beautifully bred up and down. If Resilience fades in the last eighth, it won’t be because of his pedigree… but don’t be surprised if he ends up on turf eventually.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack? But I’d be thrilled if he beat that expectation.
20. Society Man
What to like: Okay, so let me tell you a story real quick. I’m in this little creative writing group with some buddies of mine, and a month or so ago, I decided to mess with them for April Fool’s by writing up a book blurb about my “latest work,” a god-awful story about an undergraduate philosophy major who thinks he’s the only smart person in the world. I titled this prospective novel SOCIETY MAN. Did I know that it shared a name with an improving, hard-trying colt who actually had some legitimate excuses prior to the Wood Memorial, picks up a significantly better rider, has been working pretty well, and might actually have a better chance at hitting the board than some of the horses half his price? No. I had no idea that this horse existed.
What not to like: So you can imagine how I felt when the Wood Memorial field was posted and I see him right there, like some sort of phantom from the cosmic ether: SOCIETY MAN. Now, I’ve placed a hunch bet or two or three hundred in my day. But they never win, they always feel bad afterwards, and I have to set a limit somewhere. Who would pop down $10 WPS on a horse with a lifetime career Beyer of 82 who had once lost to someone called Speed Runner? I saw that 99-1 gleaming next to his number as they lined up for the post parade and I thought, a little smugly: No. No, I’m not that psychotic.
Ideal trip: So anyways, he runs second at 107-1, I wonder if this counts as proof that we live in a simulation, and everyone starts giving me shit. My mom says I should have recognized it as a calling from the future. My buddies, who hated SOCIETY MAN (the story), tell me that I have to bet my life savings on this horse in the Derby. My husband, a non-gambler, asks a simple question that still has me shaken to my core: “why didn’t you bet SOCIETY MAN?” What am I supposed to do? None of them know that this horse drew outside, need to save ground somehow near the midflight, and then grind home on his pedigree in the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: Listen. I’m a woman of science. The great challenge and beauty of handicapping is that we can never truly remove our emotions from it, but I do my best to look at facts: for example, the fact that this horse is by Good Magic out of a Colonel John mare, his half-brother is a router, he’s bit of AP Indy action underneath, and his pedigree is overall pretty okay for 10f. But us scientists will be the first to agree that the world out there is more beautiful and confusing and mysterious than any of us can truly even imagine. Surprise is just a function of expectation. Take away one and you’re left without the shadow of the other. We’re all just particles, man.
Least-surprising finish: First place
21. Epic Ride
What to like: This is the last horse on my list
What not to like: It’s 4am
Ideal trip: he teleports to the rail, saves ground, gets a moderate pace, and also improves like fifteen lengths from the Blue Grass.
How's the pedigree?: Well, I’m not surprised he started out on synthetic. Blame has had some useful turf horses, the damsire here is Gio Ponti, and then there are some classy turf performers even further back in the female family. 10f may or may not be this horse’s best distance, but is dirt even his best surface?
Least-surprising finish: I’m so tired
Will post a bottom line tomorrow… time for sleep.
What to like: I don’t think I need to spend a lot of time here talking about how fast this horse is. He’s crazy fast, he’s crazy good, we all know it. He was faster as a 2yo than any of these other horses have been at 3. And he moved forward from it. So I want to focus on the races that weren’t spectacular blowouts instead. I feel like the narrative has tilted a bit excessively in one direction here, because this horse’s losses actually weren’t that bad! In the Champagne he lunged at the start, sure, but that isn’t the whole story: he was then pinballed, bothered repeatedly, steadied, taken up, and then swung wide for the turn. The beaten lengths on this race might lead you to think that he gave up, but he didn’t! He actually made a big wide move in hand on the turn, then hit a wall before being wrapped up in the stretch. I see a lot of parallels with his Holy Bull, which also wasn’t really that bad. He was pinballed all over the place at the start, hustled up super wide for no real reason, then grabbed back off a very slow pace. I think he was actually quite kind to Johnny V in here—he had his ears up despite running slow in the clear, which a lot of horses hate—and once again he made a big wide move on the turn before just hitting a wall late. He ran like a short horse, but we know for a fact that he isn’t short for the Derby. His last work was absolute perfection and featured a gigantic gallop out, and although some people hate the way he’s been galloping, I haven’t seen any concern from observers who are more familiar with him. He’s a very chill horse who doesn’t need the lead and won’t fight his rider, and few riders can gauge the Derby pace better than the venerable Johnny V. And did I mention that Fierceness is really fast? Because he's really fast.
What not to like: I would love to know how this horse earned his name, because he’s tiny, mellow, and totally unassuming at anything slower than a full gallop. He’ so small that he’s been easily knocked around in prior starts, and a horse has to be able to hold their ground in the Derby. He could lose his chances at the start, but even if he breaks well, what happens if he gets hung super wide on a hot pace? And what happens when Sierra Leone ranges up on him turning for home? He has never truly looked another horse in the eye in the stretch. What happens when Fierceness has to fight?
Ideal trip: Just stay out of trouble on the outside of the speed and prove better than everyone in the stretch. Fierceness is looking to join the ranks of winning Derby favorites like Big Brown and American Pharoah—a Big Brown or American Pharoah trip is all he should need, if he’s good enough.
How's the pedigree?: A bit unproven. City of Light was an insanely talented horse who probably could have gotten 10f just fine on his best day; he’s still too new of a sire to evaluate here, but he did just have a 12f winner (on turf) in Chop Chop last week. The dam was a sprinter with no other offspring to race, and the damsire was a Travers winner who has produced few graded stakes-quality horses and possesses a fairly wretched 6.8f AWD, one of the worst in the field. But then you’ve got Empire Maker and Holy Bull lurking back there… as with all other elements of this horse, it really comes down to your own judgment of him.
Least-surprising finish: Top 5. I know a lot of people are betting him as all-or-nothing, but I think he could absolutely lose while running a heroic race to hit the board. And sure, he could run last… but we might also look back on this race years from now and ask “how the heck was Fierceness only 3-1?”
18. Stronghold
What to like: He’s tough, he’s neat, he’s very consistent. He can relax behind horses, he can split them and fight to the wire. Imagination is a decent horse and this guy was simply better than him. I get the impression that he has just always gives his best effort in every race that he runs.
What not to like: …that effort just isn’t very fast, unfortunately. His figures are quite poor, and I don’t see any forward move in him because he isn’t exactly winning these races with ease. And his competition has not been strong: the second-place horse in the Sunland Derby won his next start at Sunland with a 71 beyer. Three others from the race attempted four different Derby preps… they were beaten a total of 49 lengths in those efforts. And Imagination is a decent horse, but is anyone under the illusion that he’s a Baffert A-teamer? Stronghold got a pretty good trip in the SA Derby, and considering his pedigree, I just don’t think he’s going to show us anything better while stretching out.
Ideal trip: I keep saying it but it keeps being true… break well, get over, save as much ground as possible while laying off the pace.
How's the pedigree?: There’s no real question that Ghostzapper can get distance horses, which is good, because Stronghold needs all the help he can get. You could make a pretty competitive sprint race out of the names on his damside: Jimmy Creed vs. Henny Hughes vs. Swiss Yodeler, place your bets!
Least-surprising finish: Back half of the field.
19. Resilience
What to like: He’s just neat! How can you not like this horse? An improving colt for Bill Mott, looked good with blinkers on the Wood Memorial, and he’s been working really well at CD in preparation for this event. He has a beautiful pedigree and just feels like a horse who has yet to show us his best race.
What not to like: …but what if the Wood Memorial really was his best? I wonder if this performance was more due to the company than the horse. On figures it was pretty much the same as his Risen Star, in which he just wasn’t as good as three other Derby competitors. Resilience also got a very sweet trip in the Wood, and he won’t get that trip here. I would love to see him succeed, but I just don’t quite think he fits in the top tier yet. I don’t love the way he drifted in during the stretch run of the Wood, I don’t think he has a 10f dirt stride, and I suspect he’ll end up on turf eventually.
Ideal trip: [see Stronghold]
How's the pedigree?: Good. I don’t think I will ever buy Into Mischief as a distance influence, no matter how many Derby winners he sires, but it really doesn’t matter here. Resilience’s half-brother is a router and then you have Smart Strike as the damsire and the incredibly classy distance mare Tranquility Lake two generations back. His tail-female line traces all the way back to Pochahontas, and he’s just beautifully bred up and down. If Resilience fades in the last eighth, it won’t be because of his pedigree… but don’t be surprised if he ends up on turf eventually.
Least-surprising finish: Midpack? But I’d be thrilled if he beat that expectation.
20. Society Man
What to like: Okay, so let me tell you a story real quick. I’m in this little creative writing group with some buddies of mine, and a month or so ago, I decided to mess with them for April Fool’s by writing up a book blurb about my “latest work,” a god-awful story about an undergraduate philosophy major who thinks he’s the only smart person in the world. I titled this prospective novel SOCIETY MAN. Did I know that it shared a name with an improving, hard-trying colt who actually had some legitimate excuses prior to the Wood Memorial, picks up a significantly better rider, has been working pretty well, and might actually have a better chance at hitting the board than some of the horses half his price? No. I had no idea that this horse existed.
What not to like: So you can imagine how I felt when the Wood Memorial field was posted and I see him right there, like some sort of phantom from the cosmic ether: SOCIETY MAN. Now, I’ve placed a hunch bet or two or three hundred in my day. But they never win, they always feel bad afterwards, and I have to set a limit somewhere. Who would pop down $10 WPS on a horse with a lifetime career Beyer of 82 who had once lost to someone called Speed Runner? I saw that 99-1 gleaming next to his number as they lined up for the post parade and I thought, a little smugly: No. No, I’m not that psychotic.
Ideal trip: So anyways, he runs second at 107-1, I wonder if this counts as proof that we live in a simulation, and everyone starts giving me shit. My mom says I should have recognized it as a calling from the future. My buddies, who hated SOCIETY MAN (the story), tell me that I have to bet my life savings on this horse in the Derby. My husband, a non-gambler, asks a simple question that still has me shaken to my core: “why didn’t you bet SOCIETY MAN?” What am I supposed to do? None of them know that this horse drew outside, need to save ground somehow near the midflight, and then grind home on his pedigree in the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: Listen. I’m a woman of science. The great challenge and beauty of handicapping is that we can never truly remove our emotions from it, but I do my best to look at facts: for example, the fact that this horse is by Good Magic out of a Colonel John mare, his half-brother is a router, he’s bit of AP Indy action underneath, and his pedigree is overall pretty okay for 10f. But us scientists will be the first to agree that the world out there is more beautiful and confusing and mysterious than any of us can truly even imagine. Surprise is just a function of expectation. Take away one and you’re left without the shadow of the other. We’re all just particles, man.
Least-surprising finish: First place
21. Epic Ride
What to like: This is the last horse on my list
What not to like: It’s 4am
Ideal trip: he teleports to the rail, saves ground, gets a moderate pace, and also improves like fifteen lengths from the Blue Grass.
How's the pedigree?: Well, I’m not surprised he started out on synthetic. Blame has had some useful turf horses, the damsire here is Gio Ponti, and then there are some classy turf performers even further back in the female family. 10f may or may not be this horse’s best distance, but is dirt even his best surface?
Least-surprising finish: I’m so tired
Will post a bottom line tomorrow… time for sleep.
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tachyon
- Posts: 7261
- Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:52 pm
Thank you!!!Tessablue wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 4:18 am 20. Society Man
What to like: Okay, so let me tell you a story real quick. I’m in this little creative writing group with some buddies of mine, and a month or so ago, I decided to mess with them for April Fool’s by writing up a book blurb about my “latest work,” a god-awful story about an undergraduate philosophy major who thinks he’s the only smart person in the world. I titled this prospective novel SOCIETY MAN. Did I know that it shared a name with an improving, hard-trying colt who actually had some legitimate excuses prior to the Wood Memorial, picks up a significantly better rider, has been working pretty well, and might actually have a better chance at hitting the board than some of the horses half his price? No. I had no idea that this horse existed.
What not to like: So you can imagine how I felt when the Wood Memorial field was posted and I see him right there, like some sort of phantom from the cosmic ether: SOCIETY MAN. Now, I’ve placed a hunch bet or two or three hundred in my day. But they never win, they always feel bad afterwards, and I have to set a limit somewhere. Who would pop down $10 WPS on a horse with a lifetime career Beyer of 82 who had once lost to someone called Speed Runner? I saw that 99-1 gleaming next to his number as they lined up for the post parade and I thought, a little smugly: No. No, I’m not that psychotic.
Ideal trip: So anyways, he runs second at 107-1, I wonder if this counts as proof that we live in a simulation, and everyone starts giving me shit. My mom says I should have recognized it as a calling from the future. My buddies, who hated SOCIETY MAN (the story), tell me that I have to bet my life savings on this horse in the Derby. My husband, a non-gambler, asks a simple question that still has me shaken to my core: “why didn’t you bet SOCIETY MAN?” What am I supposed to do? None of them know that this horse drew outside, need to save ground somehow near the midflight, and then grind home on his pedigree in the stretch.
How's the pedigree?: Listen. I’m a woman of science. The great challenge and beauty of handicapping is that we can never truly remove our emotions from it, but I do my best to look at facts: for example, the fact that this horse is by Good Magic out of a Colonel John mare, his half-brother is a router, he’s bit of AP Indy action underneath, and his pedigree is overall pretty okay for 10f. But us scientists will be the first to agree that the world out there is more beautiful and confusing and mysterious than any of us can truly even imagine. Surprise is just a function of expectation. Take away one and you’re left without the shadow of the other. We’re all just particles, man.
Least-surprising finish: First place
I've made up my mind to include him in my tickets!!!!!!!
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CoronadosQuest
- Posts: 3101
- Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:44 pm
I think society man has to do well now after that 
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Bottom Line: This is an interesting, deep, difficult race. There are no false favorites in here; the top four betting interests are all very good horses with legitimate shots to win. But you can’t exactly throw out the rest of the field—if anything, I think there are fewer complete no-hopers than usual, and there’s a pretty good chance that a horse from outside the top four blows up the toteboard. Who might that horse be? I think Just Steel has a good shot at it, and I swear I’m not being completely ridiculous when I say that Society Man could surprise. I totally understand why lots of people are betting Honor Marie, but I just don’t really like his current price.
As for the winner, I just can’t get past Fierceness. He fits the profile of past favorites who were simply better than the rest of the field, and he doesn’t even have to run back to his Florida Derby to win here. But I don’t think he’s a lock, and I really like Catching Freedom as the next most likely winner. He just has a bit more in his corner compared to Sierra Leone and Forever Young, both of whom are very good horses who could absolutely win this race.
I won’t pretend that these are particularly novel selections, but here’s the thing about the Derby: you can’t win if you don’t bet the winner, and a 20-horse field always offers value. The favorites all make sense, and I’ve handicapped enough Derbys to feel okay with it.
Fierceness/ Catching Freedom
Sierra Leone/ Just Steel/ Forever Young
Most likely winner: SOCIETY MAN
As for the winner, I just can’t get past Fierceness. He fits the profile of past favorites who were simply better than the rest of the field, and he doesn’t even have to run back to his Florida Derby to win here. But I don’t think he’s a lock, and I really like Catching Freedom as the next most likely winner. He just has a bit more in his corner compared to Sierra Leone and Forever Young, both of whom are very good horses who could absolutely win this race.
I won’t pretend that these are particularly novel selections, but here’s the thing about the Derby: you can’t win if you don’t bet the winner, and a 20-horse field always offers value. The favorites all make sense, and I’ve handicapped enough Derbys to feel okay with it.
Fierceness/ Catching Freedom
Sierra Leone/ Just Steel/ Forever Young
Most likely winner: SOCIETY MAN
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
Society Man performed just as well as my story 
Will go through and analyze the analysis later, but this is certainly another point for my "you want a small agile horse in the Derby" hypothesis. Thought Catching Freedom would be that horse this year, but he ran well, and Dan made sense. Just didn't think he would last 10f... and he almost didn't. An amazing and gutsy ride got him there.
Also...
Will go through and analyze the analysis later, but this is certainly another point for my "you want a small agile horse in the Derby" hypothesis. Thought Catching Freedom would be that horse this year, but he ran well, and Dan made sense. Just didn't think he would last 10f... and he almost didn't. An amazing and gutsy ride got him there.
Also...
At least I got this right!Least-surprising finish: Uhhh I’m going to say top 6. [Sierra Leone] is crazy good, zero surprise if he wins, but I think it’s slightly more likely that he winds up as the “woulda won with a better trip” horse.
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Izvestia
- Posts: 5373
- Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am
Thought I would highlight this. Good job in your What to Like!Tessablue wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 7:40 pm
3. Mystik Dan
What to like: He’s neat! Dan has a Versatile running style and has shown spots of brilliance in his campaign thus far. His race in the Southwest produced the fastest non-Fierceness BSF of anyone in here, and it’s not like he didn’t earn it—yes, the rail was really good, but he got a genius ride from Brian Hernandez Jr., who trusted that his horse could handle being inside and prioritized saving ground over gaining a forward position. And Dan didn’t let his rider down, taking a faceful of mud and streaking up the rail to an enormous win. I like a horse who can rate inside and accelerate, and in keeping with what I wrote about Sierra Leone, this horse is small-bodied and capable of splitting horses and hitting gaps. He won big at Churchill with a huge BSF (96) last year, albeit at 5.5f, and even his race in the AK Derby wasn’t as bad as it looked—he lost a decent amount of position when Liberal Arts came out on him, and the race had a pretty forward flow. And if you like him, you’ll get some value on him.
What not to like: I’m not really sure what sort of trip he’s going to get here. He can rate behind horses, yes, but he doesn’t break super well and I think he’ll end up swallowed up by the field early on. This is one of the worst places to be in the Derby—how many horses get sucked into the scrum and never heard from again? But my main issue here is distance. His pedigree says he’ll be best at around a mile, he was super flat stretching out to 9f in the AK Derby, and he just doesn’t strike me as a horse who will be finishing strong in the last eighth of this race. And if you can’t get early position but also don’t have a ton of late foot, where does that leave you in the Derby?
Ideal trip: The pace doesn’t really develop, he breaks well and ends up saving ground just off the first flight, then he makes use of those rocket boosters he used in the Southwest!
How's the pedigree?: Well… Goldencents was a confirmed miler who possesses the worst AWD of all sires in the field. No siblings to compare, but the dam was a miler. Colonel John underneath MIGHT help, but
Least-surprising finish: Around midpack to back half of the top 10. He’s usable, he’s not a bad value play, and I know there are some big-name handicappers out there who really like him… but as the saying goes, I prefer others.
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
Thank you very much! A bit tough to read in retrospect because I made a case to bet him and then tossed him outright, but so it goes. Always nice when the Derby result makes sense, and he sure got that ideal trip (and ride).
Will probably do a horse-by-horse trip analysis a bit later, because why not. Twenty horses, twenty stories, really one of my favorite things about this race.
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Tessablue
- Posts: 6178
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
A horse-by-horse trip overview, Part 1:
1. Dornoch: actually ran an admirable race. Didn't break well, had to take up pretty badly behind Mystik Dan, got rank while shuffled way back, took a ton of dirt. Had every right to spit the bit but just kept plugging along to finish midpack. He's a nice horse, and I probably underestimated him.
2. Sierra Leone: really had no mishap in the first mile of the race. He saved ground and did fan very wide turning for home, but that's just the type of horse he is. Closed strongly as expected, clearly a very good horse, but his lugging in is going to continue to be a problem. He always does it, and I think it's a matter of physics, not concentration. His stride is just so unbalanced in the front that I suspect he'll always do this when he gets tired... hopefully not, but I don't know if it's even a correctable issue. Bottom line: a good horse who is going to lose races that he could otherwise win because of his runstyle.
3. Mystik Dan: an absolutely incredible trip, yes, but a gutsy ride and a gutsy horse. Dan did everything to help himself, breaking best of everyone and then relaxing beautifully in a miraculous pocket behind the pace. When his rider asked him to hit a tiny gap between Track Phantom and the rail, Dan didn't hesitate and even made some contact with the other horse to get it done. You have to admire a horse with Dan's guts and versatility--I still think 10f is beyond his best, but he ran his heart out yesterday and earned his win. Like I said above, there were reasons to like him going into the race, and although I never could have imagined him getting that trip, that's sort of on me. He's the kind of horse who can adapt to many different scenarios, and that compact frame gave him the ability to the gap in the final turn. I strongly believe that smaller horses are better bets in the Derby, and Dan offers some compelling support for this hypothesis. Neat horse, probably best at distances shorter than 10f, and I hope he has lots of success moving forward. Love to see a horse with an actual prep campaign (three whole races!!) win the Derby, and you know McPeek isn't going to dodge anything.
4. Catching Freedom: was poised to get some fairly good positioning early, but the two Justify colts interfered with him repeatedly in the first quarter and he ended up steadily dropping back. Made a pretty huge move on the turn, weaving around traffic then sticking to the rail and following Mystik Dan through that tight Track Phantom gap. He couldn’t quite find more to match the other two closers, but he kept running and was inching up on the trio at the finish. Really good race, fantastic ride by Prat, likely will be overlooked in favor of the top three but should be competitive in the big races moving forward
5. Catalytic: never looked happy. Broke out, bumped around, didn’t switch to his right lead until late, sucked into the scrum and never heard from again. A cautionary tale of what can happen to a horse who draws inside and doesn’t have much positional speed.
6. Just Steel: oh, Just Steel… played bumper cars with multiple horses at the start, grabbed his rider and sort of dragged him to the front, was right up on that quick pace and empty turning for home. Nothing Keith did wrong and I’m sure it was a pretty thrilling experience for him. The horse probably doesn’t want 10f and still isn’t easy on his rider… needs outside draws and will probably be best on turf. My own lesson from this horse: I bet him because I liked him, even though he had some glaring red flags, and I ignored other more likely horses because of it. But the horses are just going to run their race, they don’t know or care that you like them. Like I said, separating emotion from handicapping is an enormous challenge… but I’d hate to eliminate it altogether.
7. Honor Marie: banged around at the start, lost a lot of position, made a decent rail run before his jockey seemed to lose some confidence and yanked him outside. Was never going to threaten the leaders, but gave a good account of himself and will run better with less trouble in the future. Another who might/ should probably end up on turf at some point.
8. Just a Touch: hesitated at the start, did have an open lane to try for the front but seemed more interested in drifting in and causing some chain reactions. The race was lost then and there; he absolutely resented being behind horses and had nothing left by the time they turned for home. I want to give a shout-out to Florent Geroux for never even taking his whip out, opting instead to just wrap up and take care of the horse. That could make a difference in the future, as this is a talented horse who just did not have the experience to cope with the conditions of this race.
10. T O Password: what on earth?? This horse had only ever race forwardly with soft trips. Here he hesitated at the start, got shut off and shuffled back almost to last, took tons of dirt, and then… put in a widest-of-all rally on the turn, unable to match the top four but finishing well-clear of the rest of the field? In his second start?? Absolutely mindboggling. Sometimes you get horses in this race who run well from the back and then never really repeat the effort because the Derby is such a unique race, but this guy absolutely served noticed that no Japanese horse can ever be fully discounted in this race moving forward. An incredibly impressive showing from all three Japanese horses this weekend, and I hope we see him back in the future.
11. Forever Young: what else is there to say that hasn’t been said already? Bumped at the start, rallied wide and a little too early, was crowded in and bumped the length of the stretch, still kept fighting for every inch and even leaned back on Sierra Leone when that horse came in on him. A performance that will be remembered fondly in Derby lore, especially given the injustice of the lack of inquiry. A wonderful horse who gives his all and will surely win a big one in the future if he stays healthy. One thing I will note is that neither Japanese horse broke well, and both broke without someone standing in the gate with them (per requests from the connections). The Derby is such a brutal race that you need every advantage in it—I wonder if this is an area for Japanese connections to key in on moving forward?
1. Dornoch: actually ran an admirable race. Didn't break well, had to take up pretty badly behind Mystik Dan, got rank while shuffled way back, took a ton of dirt. Had every right to spit the bit but just kept plugging along to finish midpack. He's a nice horse, and I probably underestimated him.
2. Sierra Leone: really had no mishap in the first mile of the race. He saved ground and did fan very wide turning for home, but that's just the type of horse he is. Closed strongly as expected, clearly a very good horse, but his lugging in is going to continue to be a problem. He always does it, and I think it's a matter of physics, not concentration. His stride is just so unbalanced in the front that I suspect he'll always do this when he gets tired... hopefully not, but I don't know if it's even a correctable issue. Bottom line: a good horse who is going to lose races that he could otherwise win because of his runstyle.
3. Mystik Dan: an absolutely incredible trip, yes, but a gutsy ride and a gutsy horse. Dan did everything to help himself, breaking best of everyone and then relaxing beautifully in a miraculous pocket behind the pace. When his rider asked him to hit a tiny gap between Track Phantom and the rail, Dan didn't hesitate and even made some contact with the other horse to get it done. You have to admire a horse with Dan's guts and versatility--I still think 10f is beyond his best, but he ran his heart out yesterday and earned his win. Like I said above, there were reasons to like him going into the race, and although I never could have imagined him getting that trip, that's sort of on me. He's the kind of horse who can adapt to many different scenarios, and that compact frame gave him the ability to the gap in the final turn. I strongly believe that smaller horses are better bets in the Derby, and Dan offers some compelling support for this hypothesis. Neat horse, probably best at distances shorter than 10f, and I hope he has lots of success moving forward. Love to see a horse with an actual prep campaign (three whole races!!) win the Derby, and you know McPeek isn't going to dodge anything.
4. Catching Freedom: was poised to get some fairly good positioning early, but the two Justify colts interfered with him repeatedly in the first quarter and he ended up steadily dropping back. Made a pretty huge move on the turn, weaving around traffic then sticking to the rail and following Mystik Dan through that tight Track Phantom gap. He couldn’t quite find more to match the other two closers, but he kept running and was inching up on the trio at the finish. Really good race, fantastic ride by Prat, likely will be overlooked in favor of the top three but should be competitive in the big races moving forward
5. Catalytic: never looked happy. Broke out, bumped around, didn’t switch to his right lead until late, sucked into the scrum and never heard from again. A cautionary tale of what can happen to a horse who draws inside and doesn’t have much positional speed.
6. Just Steel: oh, Just Steel… played bumper cars with multiple horses at the start, grabbed his rider and sort of dragged him to the front, was right up on that quick pace and empty turning for home. Nothing Keith did wrong and I’m sure it was a pretty thrilling experience for him. The horse probably doesn’t want 10f and still isn’t easy on his rider… needs outside draws and will probably be best on turf. My own lesson from this horse: I bet him because I liked him, even though he had some glaring red flags, and I ignored other more likely horses because of it. But the horses are just going to run their race, they don’t know or care that you like them. Like I said, separating emotion from handicapping is an enormous challenge… but I’d hate to eliminate it altogether.
7. Honor Marie: banged around at the start, lost a lot of position, made a decent rail run before his jockey seemed to lose some confidence and yanked him outside. Was never going to threaten the leaders, but gave a good account of himself and will run better with less trouble in the future. Another who might/ should probably end up on turf at some point.
8. Just a Touch: hesitated at the start, did have an open lane to try for the front but seemed more interested in drifting in and causing some chain reactions. The race was lost then and there; he absolutely resented being behind horses and had nothing left by the time they turned for home. I want to give a shout-out to Florent Geroux for never even taking his whip out, opting instead to just wrap up and take care of the horse. That could make a difference in the future, as this is a talented horse who just did not have the experience to cope with the conditions of this race.
10. T O Password: what on earth?? This horse had only ever race forwardly with soft trips. Here he hesitated at the start, got shut off and shuffled back almost to last, took tons of dirt, and then… put in a widest-of-all rally on the turn, unable to match the top four but finishing well-clear of the rest of the field? In his second start?? Absolutely mindboggling. Sometimes you get horses in this race who run well from the back and then never really repeat the effort because the Derby is such a unique race, but this guy absolutely served noticed that no Japanese horse can ever be fully discounted in this race moving forward. An incredibly impressive showing from all three Japanese horses this weekend, and I hope we see him back in the future.
11. Forever Young: what else is there to say that hasn’t been said already? Bumped at the start, rallied wide and a little too early, was crowded in and bumped the length of the stretch, still kept fighting for every inch and even leaned back on Sierra Leone when that horse came in on him. A performance that will be remembered fondly in Derby lore, especially given the injustice of the lack of inquiry. A wonderful horse who gives his all and will surely win a big one in the future if he stays healthy. One thing I will note is that neither Japanese horse broke well, and both broke without someone standing in the gate with them (per requests from the connections). The Derby is such a brutal race that you need every advantage in it—I wonder if this is an area for Japanese connections to key in on moving forward?
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Slewfan2
- Posts: 1940
- Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:35 pm
Ben Curtis said he also lost his iron …as well as the colt nearly going on his head. I don’t think he lost confidence in the horseTessablue wrote: ↑Sun May 05, 2024 5:50 pm A horse-by-horse trip overview, Part 1:
1. Dornoch: actually ran an admirable race. Didn't break well, had to take up pretty badly behind Mystik Dan, got rank while shuffled way back, took a ton of dirt. Had every right to spit the bit but just kept plugging along to finish midpack. He's a nice horse, and I probably underestimated him.
2. Sierra Leone: really had no mishap in the first mile of the race. He saved ground and did fan very wide turning for home, but that's just the type of horse he is. Closed strongly as expected, clearly a very good horse, but his lugging in is going to continue to be a problem. He always does it, and I think it's a matter of physics, not concentration. His stride is just so unbalanced in the front that I suspect he'll always do this when he gets tired... hopefully not, but I don't know if it's even a correctable issue. Bottom line: a good horse who is going to lose races that he could otherwise win because of his runstyle.
3. Mystik Dan: an absolutely incredible trip, yes, but a gutsy ride and a gutsy horse. Dan did everything to help himself, breaking best of everyone and then relaxing beautifully in a miraculous pocket behind the pace. When his rider asked him to hit a tiny gap between Track Phantom and the rail, Dan didn't hesitate and even made some contact with the other horse to get it done. You have to admire a horse with Dan's guts and versatility--I still think 10f is beyond his best, but he ran his heart out yesterday and earned his win. Like I said above, there were reasons to like him going into the race, and although I never could have imagined him getting that trip, that's sort of on me. He's the kind of horse who can adapt to many different scenarios, and that compact frame gave him the ability to the gap in the final turn. I strongly believe that smaller horses are better bets in the Derby, and Dan offers some compelling support for this hypothesis. Neat horse, probably best at distances shorter than 10f, and I hope he has lots of success moving forward. Love to see a horse with an actual prep campaign (three whole races!!) win the Derby, and you know McPeek isn't going to dodge anything.
4. Catching Freedom: was poised to get some fairly good positioning early, but the two Justify colts interfered with him repeatedly in the first quarter and he ended up steadily dropping back. Made a pretty huge move on the turn, weaving around traffic then sticking to the rail and following Mystik Dan through that tight Track Phantom gap. He couldn’t quite find more to match the other two closers, but he kept running and was inching up on the trio at the finish. Really good race, fantastic ride by Prat, likely will be overlooked in favor of the top three but should be competitive in the big races moving forward
5. Catalytic: never looked happy. Broke out, bumped around, didn’t switch to his right lead until late, sucked into the scrum and never heard from again. A cautionary tale of what can happen to a horse who draws inside and doesn’t have much positional speed.
6. Just Steel: oh, Just Steel… played bumper cars with multiple horses at the start, grabbed his rider and sort of dragged him to the front, was right up on that quick pace and empty turning for home. Nothing Keith did wrong and I’m sure it was a pretty thrilling experience for him. The horse probably doesn’t want 10f and still isn’t easy on his rider… needs outside draws and will probably be best on turf. My own lesson from this horse: I bet him because I liked him, even though he had some glaring red flags, and I ignored other more likely horses because of it. But the horses are just going to run their race, they don’t know or care that you like them. Like I said, separating emotion from handicapping is an enormous challenge… but I’d hate to eliminate it altogether.
7. Honor Marie: banged around at the start, lost a lot of position, made a decent rail run before his jockey seemed to lose some confidence and yanked him outside. Was never going to threaten the leaders, but gave a good account of himself and will run better with less trouble in the future. Another who might/ should probably end up on turf at some point.
8. Just a Touch: hesitated at the start, did have an open lane to try for the front but seemed more interested in drifting in and causing some chain reactions. The race was lost then and there; he absolutely resented being behind horses and had nothing left by the time they turned for home. I want to give a shout-out to Florent Geroux for never even taking his whip out, opting instead to just wrap up and take care of the horse. That could make a difference in the future, as this is a talented horse who just did not have the experience to cope with the conditions of this race.
10. T O Password: what on earth?? This horse had only ever race forwardly with soft trips. Here he hesitated at the start, got shut off and shuffled back almost to last, took tons of dirt, and then… put in a widest-of-all rally on the turn, unable to match the top four but finishing well-clear of the rest of the field? In his second start?? Absolutely mindboggling. Sometimes you get horses in this race who run well from the back and then never really repeat the effort because the Derby is such a unique race, but this guy absolutely served noticed that no Japanese horse can ever be fully discounted in this race moving forward. An incredibly impressive showing from all three Japanese horses this weekend, and I hope we see him back in the future.
11. Forever Young: what else is there to say that hasn’t been said already? Bumped at the start, rallied wide and a little too early, was crowded in and bumped the length of the stretch, still kept fighting for every inch and even leaned back on Sierra Leone when that horse came in on him. A performance that will be remembered fondly in Derby lore, especially given the injustice of the lack of inquiry. A wonderful horse who gives his all and will surely win a big one in the future if he stays healthy. One thing I will note is that neither Japanese horse broke well, and both broke without someone standing in the gate with them (per requests from the connections). The Derby is such a brutal race that you need every advantage in it—I wonder if this is an area for Japanese connections to key in on moving forward?
HM is very well bred for turf, but there’s no reason to try him on it because he’s doing very well on dirt. He never had a chance after the start, so I don’t think we can say he wouldn’t have won or been a lot closer.
Thanks for the awesome recap!