2024 Three Year Olds

Izvestia
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:03 am

Northport wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:34 pm Real 180 from "We're missing the Fountain of Youth because want to race him sparingly before the Derby" to "we raced him sparingly so now we aren't qualified for the Derby".
Dumb.

The last (and only?!?) Lexington winner to win the Derby was … Charismatic.

Why not wait for the Preakness, I like the horse, but he’s not going to win the Derby taking this route. Why ruin a nice gelding for one race you are likely not going to win.
stark
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:34 am

Trainer Bob Baffert confirmed to The Times that 3-year-old phenom Nysos will not be ready in time for the Preakness. He should resume training in a couple weeks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Northport
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:50 am

Izvestia wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:03 am
Northport wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:34 pm Real 180 from "We're missing the Fountain of Youth because want to race him sparingly before the Derby" to "we raced him sparingly so now we aren't qualified for the Derby".
Dumb.

The last (and only?!?) Lexington winner to win the Derby was … Charismatic.

Why not wait for the Preakness, I like the horse, but he’s not going to win the Derby taking this route. Why ruin a nice gelding for one race you are likely not going to win.
Same reason why the Amermans went from "Endlessly will race on turf next time out" to "All options, including the Derby, are now being considered". Derby fever has no cure (except maybe an 18th placed finish and a cooked 3 year old)
weeeeeeeee
Izvestia
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:17 am

stark wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:34 am Trainer Bob Baffert confirmed to The Times that 3-year-old phenom Nysos will not be ready in time for the Preakness. He should resume training in a couple weeks.
Phenom. Who said that?

Is this the start of a stallion ad?
TapitsGal
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:43 pm

Northport wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:50 am
Izvestia wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:03 am
Northport wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:34 pm Real 180 from "We're missing the Fountain of Youth because want to race him sparingly before the Derby" to "we raced him sparingly so now we aren't qualified for the Derby".
Dumb.

The last (and only?!?) Lexington winner to win the Derby was … Charismatic.

Why not wait for the Preakness, I like the horse, but he’s not going to win the Derby taking this route. Why ruin a nice gelding for one race you are likely not going to win.
Same reason why the Amermans went from "Endlessly will race on turf next time out" to "All options, including the Derby, are now being considered". Derby fever has no cure (except maybe an 18th placed finish and a cooked 3 year old)
I have a share in seize the Grey. Was honestly kinda happy to see him run 7th in the bluegrass. I never thought he was a derby horse and wanted him to pass on the derby. But the derby fever in the group for a horse with two stakes placings and no stakes wins was insufferable..course now people are onto saying he should run in the Preakness,belmont,Travers or breeders cup.

Let's try and get him a win in a lesser stakes or grade 3 first. I can see lukas and mrh picking an undercard day race on oaks,derby for him
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:09 pm

Has Sierra Leone ever had difficulties loading before? I read that something in the crowd spooked him and after that Tyler had a hard time getting him to ignore whatever was spooking him. Is it easy to replicate the craziness of big race days to train them to get used to it or maybe Sierra Leone just needs ear muffs? Wasn't there a horse that ran with ear muffs that the jockey could pull out at a certain point in the race so that the horse could still hear the other horses during the race? Maybe it was a Baffert horse?
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:13 pm

Izvestia wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:17 am
stark wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:34 am Trainer Bob Baffert confirmed to The Times that 3-year-old phenom Nysos will not be ready in time for the Preakness. He should resume training in a couple weeks.
Phenom. Who said that?

Is this the start of a stallion ad?
Since Nysos is a Nyquist... probably :lol: unless someone can think of a sturdy Nyquist that has stayed sound. Though I always pictured Nysos more the Flightline / Ghostzapper type. Fast but fragile. Plus, he is a May foal so he is pretty young yet.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:32 pm

I didn't see it mentioned yet but

Sierra Leone - 98 BSF
Stronghold - 89 BSF
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:35 pm

tachyon wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 7:45 am Here's a replay of T O Password's debut race (Newcomer race, 1800m dirt at Kyoto Jan 6th -- T O Password was #6 horse who raced just off the pace), Tessablue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgDPsJx7I1s

and a replay of his second race (Fukuryu Stakes, 1800m dirt at Nakayama Mar 23rd)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgNU1QZ9Awc

I wouldn't imagine that T O Password will be fast enough to set the pace early in the Derby...but it will basically be up to his rider's decision.
Kazushi Kimura has been booked to ride him for the first time at Churchill Downs.

And, as for Forever Young, I suspect that he will race from the mid-pack (or a bit more forwardly if he could) unless his jockey Ryusei Sakai loses his calm (in the extraordinary atmosphere in the Derby).
Thank you so much for the replays, tachyon! I really appreciate it. Looks like he's a bit slow breaking from the gate, but can still quicken towards the front, and doesn't mind laying off of horses. Very good information to have!

89 Beyer for Stronghold, oof. And for what it's worth, the Blue Grass evidently had a very fast pace.
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:48 pm

https://www.drf.com/news/sierra-leone-h ... ucky-derby

According to this article, Track Phantom will race with blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby. Also Top Conor will return to 1 mile races with the Pat Day Mile his possible next target.
Tessablue
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 2:04 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:48 pm https://www.drf.com/news/sierra-leone-h ... ucky-derby

According to this article, Track Phantom will race with blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.
Meltdown incoming!
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Squeaky
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 2:10 pm

Tessablue wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 2:04 pm
CoronadosQuest wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:48 pm https://www.drf.com/news/sierra-leone-h ... ucky-derby

According to this article, Track Phantom will race with blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.
Meltdown incoming!
Dornoch being sent too as per trainer
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:19 pm

Has Coolmore ever won the Kentucky Derby before?
TapitsGal
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:27 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:19 pm Has Coolmore ever won the Kentucky Derby before?
Michael Tabor owned thunder gulch
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CoronadosQuest
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:31 pm

TapitsGal wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:27 pm
CoronadosQuest wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:19 pm Has Coolmore ever won the Kentucky Derby before?
Michael Tabor owned thunder gulch
Thanks! I forgot that :D
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Squeaky
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:34 pm

Some of the Coolmore partners getting up there in age what are succession plans?
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HB1994
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:35 pm

Squeaky wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:34 pm Some of the Coolmore partners getting up there in age what are succession plans?
Isn’t Magnier’s son pretty much running Coolmore these days?
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Flanders
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:25 pm

HB1994 wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:35 pm
Squeaky wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:34 pm Some of the Coolmore partners getting up there in age what are succession plans?
Isn’t Magnier’s son pretty much running Coolmore these days?
Yes. I mean MV runs Ireland, Tom runs Australia. I would guess America falls under MV?
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Northport
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Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:53 pm

Flanders wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:25 pm
HB1994 wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:35 pm
Squeaky wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:34 pm Some of the Coolmore partners getting up there in age what are succession plans?
Isn’t Magnier’s son pretty much running Coolmore these days?
Yes. I mean MV runs Ireland, Tom runs Australia. I would guess America falls under MV?
Derrick Smith's son, Paul, owns racehorses. Not sure if he does any direct dealings with Coolmore, but he owned 2014 St Leger winner Kingston Hill, who did stand at Coolmore initially upon retirement.
weeeeeeeee
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HB1994
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Mon Apr 08, 2024 5:09 pm

HB1994 wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 7:39 pm
Timely Writer wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 7:32 pm
Northport wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 6:07 pm He has such a beautiful stride... from the side
Other thread Tessablue says horrendous stride, which is it? I know he's got a beautiful walk cuz he brought 2.3mil as a yearling
He paddles terribly, which you can see from the head-on. As Northport said, he looks fine from the side..
Here’s some head-on footage of SL from Saturday:

https://x.com/derby1592/status/1777183040252604683
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