The Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis Thread

[Tessablue]

Just because sometimes the discussion ends up mixed with news or spread out across multiple threads... who do you like? Who is your big longshot in this race? Who do you think will go to the lead? Does post 17 have some sort of curse on it that causes people to misunderstand statistics? Debate here!

[Tessablue]

Will add horse-by-horse analysis later, but another starting question: who do you think will actually be the favorite? The discussion has centered around Fierceness, but a lot of people seem bizarrely down on post 17, even though it was a good draw for him. Sierra Leone is actually favored over him in the current overseas betting. Is there a chance we see him go favored? And will Mystik Dan follow the recent trend of horses-with-people-names getting wildly overbet in the win pool?

[Audarya20]

Hi, first time user here. I just had to reply to your post. Since 1933, no horse has ever won the Derby from posts 17-20, which is probably why people are not too enthusiastic about Fierceness' pp draw.

[Flanders]

Just because sometimes the discussion ends up mixed with news or spread out across multiple threads... who do you like? Who is your big longshot in this race? Who do you think will go to the lead? Does post 17 have some sort of curse on it that causes people to misunderstand statistics? Debate here!

I'm not into the curses or a horse can't win a from a certain post position. How many years did we hear, about the Apollo curse? Now its happened twice in the past 6 years. Or that no one had won from the 19 post but then I'll Have Another did. All it takes is the right horse. The thing to me is that post positions stats don't mean anything before 2020, if they even mean anything at all. Its a different starting gate, a different way its lined up because there isn't an auxiliary gate. The #1 hole isn't as bad as it used to be. Its hard for me to compare 17 from an auxiliary gate to how the starting gate is now. Then you have to look at who was in a post position. Did any of the 3 horses that started from post 17 since 2020 really have a shot to begin with(Mandarin Hero, Classic Causeway and Highly Motivated)?

I compiled the post positions stats, since the 2020 running:
1 - 5 / 8 / 5 / 5
2 - 7 / 11 / 14 / 16
3 - 6 / 14 / 2 / 2
4 - 10 / 6 / 20 / 10
5 - 13 / 10 / 8 / 7
6 - 15 / 4 / 15 / 14
7 - 3 / 1* / 13 / 13
8 - 9 / 19* / 17 / 1
9 - 11 / 2 / 9 / 4
10 - 14 / 5 / 3 / 17
11 - 12 / 17 / 19 / 11
12 - 8 / 7 / 12 / 3
13 - 4 / 13 / 4 / 8
14 - 2 / 3 / 6 / 6
15 - 1 / 16 / 16 / 9
16 - na / 9 / 18 / 18
17 - na / 15 / 11 / 12
18 - na / 18 / 7 / 15
19 - na / 12 / 10 / na
20 - na / na / 1 / na

So since the new starting gate the 20 hole hasn't lost because its only had 1 runner. I did also want to note that Post 8 had 2 winners though Medina Spirit was DQd.

If there are people that think it doesn't matter about the starting gate change, there were those years where the connections got to pick their horses starting gate positions. That alone had to skew numbers though I'm not really sure how long that was done.

-------

To the race itself, I like Resilience, Stronghold, Forever Young and Encino. Though truth I'd be okay with most winning, I don't have strong feelings for any of them. I imagine Fierceness is going to go to the front, even if he isn't leading he'll be right there. If he isn't there, he hasn't shown he can win from further back. If they let him go out there on an easy lead with no pressure, its over. It'll be the scenario we've seen play out over and over.

[Flanders]

Hi, first time user here. I just had to reply to your post. Since 1933, no horse has ever won the Derby from posts 17-20, which is probably why people are not too enthusiastic about Fierceness' pp draw.

No horse has ever won from the 17. Posts18-20 have all had winners.

[stark]

1. Florent Geroux can channel PVal whenever necessary and is a solid jock on or near the lead.
2. JUST A TOUCH will not have any traffic problems with 18-19 horses behind him all the way around.
3. The morning line of 10-1 is a fair price in a wide open Derby.
4. He is a lightly raced improving sort, if it takes a BSF in the low 100's to win, I can easily see him trending directly to that.
5. Unraced at 2, who cares.
6. Has experience in the slop if that comes into play.
7. Likely favorite FIERCENESS has already shown us the best he has to offer and can just as likely bounce off that last great effort.
8. Deep closer SIERRA LEONE will have too much to do in the stretch, will never be out in the clear to show off his best paddle at a short price.
9. Somewhat concerning that JUST A TOUCH brought "only" $300,000 at auction?
10. Brad Cox wants to enjoy winning the Derby actually on Derby Day, congrats in advance to JUST A TOUCH and all the connections.

Sit back, relax and enjoy a day at the races, safe trip to all.

[Squeaky]

Andy S picks Domestic Product and Ways and Means

[Tessablue]

Welcome to the forum, Audarya, and thank you Flanders for the numbers! Yes, the outside posts used to be greatly feared, but since Big Brown won from the (voluntary) post 20 I think we've seen that they really aren't so bad. Country House had post 20, I'll Have Another had post 19, and at the end of the day it's very much about the horse, not the post. Staying wide can help a horse avoid getting bounced around in the pack, and there's no particular reason why post 17 would be any worse than posts 16 or 18. Fierceness may want to get a Big Brown trip in here- park wide just off the speed, and then prove better than everyone else. I do disagree with the notion that he needs the lead- he rated just fine in the Juvenile and even the Holy Bull, which was a very slow pace. An unratetable horse would not tolerate being kept off a pace that slow, but he came back to Johnny pretty kindly after being hustled and grabbed. Domestic Product handled it a lot worse (albeit inside horses), and nobody is painting him as a need-the-lead type.

I rewatched the Holy Bull recently and came to the conclusion that it really wasn't as bad as I remembered. I honestly think that if it had been any other horses, the popular sentiment would have been "that was a pretty good effort, keep an eye on that one." You do expect better from the Juvenile champion, but I think it could have been a lot worse.

[Missbeholder]

Just because sometimes the discussion ends up mixed with news or spread out across multiple threads... who do you like? Who is your big longshot in this race? Who do you think will go to the lead? Does post 17 have some sort of curse on it that causes people to misunderstand statistics? Debate here!

I'm not into the curses or a horse can't win a from a certain post position. How many years did we hear, about the Apollo curse? Now its happened twice in the past 6 years. Or that no one had won from the 19 post but then I'll Have Another did. All it takes is the right horse. The thing to me is that post positions stats don't mean anything before 2020, if they even mean anything at all. Its a different starting gate, a different way its lined up because there isn't an auxiliary gate. The #1 hole isn't as bad as it used to be. Its hard for me to compare 17 from an auxiliary gate to how the starting gate is now. Then you have to look at who was in a post position. Did any of the 3 horses that started from post 17 since 2020 really have a shot to begin with(Mandarin Hero, Classic Causeway and Highly Motivated)?

I compiled the post positions stats, since the 2020 running:
1 - 5 / 8 / 5 / 5
2 - 7 / 11 / 14 / 16
3 - 6 / 14 / 2 / 2
4 - 10 / 6 / 20 / 10
5 - 13 / 10 / 8 / 7
6 - 15 / 4 / 15 / 14
7 - 3 / 1* / 13 / 13
8 - 9 / 19* / 17 / 1
9 - 11 / 2 / 9 / 4
10 - 14 / 5 / 3 / 17
11 - 12 / 17 / 19 / 11
12 - 8 / 7 / 12 / 3
13 - 4 / 13 / 4 / 8
14 - 2 / 3 / 6 / 6
15 - 1 / 16 / 16 / 9
16 - na / 9 / 18 / 18
17 - na / 15 / 11 / 12
18 - na / 18 / 7 / 15
19 - na / 12 / 10 / na
20 - na / na / 1 / na

So since the new starting gate the 20 hole hasn't lost because its only had 1 runner. I did also want to note that Post 8 had 2 winners though Medina Spirit was DQd.

If there are people that think it doesn't matter about the starting gate change, there were those years where the connections got to pick their horses starting gate positions. That alone had to skew numbers though I'm not really sure how long that was done.

-------

To the race itself, I like Resilience, Stronghold, Forever Young and Encino. Though truth I'd be okay with most winning, I don't have strong feelings for any of them. I imagine Fierceness is going to go to the front, even if he isn't leading he'll be right there. If he isn't there, he hasn't shown he can win from further back. If they let him go out there on an easy lead with no pressure, its over. It'll be the scenario we've seen play out over and over.

With all the annual discussion about post positions that inevitably happens, I get confused sometimes about whether people are talking about actual positions in the gate or saddle towel/betting numbers. It's very clear in the stats Flanders posted that these numbers are for the actual starting gate slots and I'm grateful for that. It's a great statistical presentation for 4 years worth of Derbys.

I'd just like to know which of these runners in these 4 Derbys did NOT carry the same saddle towel number as their post position. It's actually probably useless information from a handicapping perspective, but everybody seems to get their knickers tied in a knot over post positions and their statistical implications. I'm really seeing people on social media eliminating Fierceness from the win because no horse has ever won from the 17-hole! OK...

[Flanders]

With all the annual discussion about post positions that inevitably happens, I get confused sometimes about whether people are talking about actual positions in the gate or saddle towel/betting numbers. It's very clear in the stats Flanders posted that these numbers are for the actual starting gate slots and I'm grateful for that. It's a great statistical presentation for 4 years worth of Derbys.

I'd just like to know which of these runners in these 4 Derbys did NOT carry the same saddle towel number as their post position. It's actually probably useless information from a handicapping perspective, but everybody seems to get their knickers tied in a knot over post positions and their statistical implications. I'm really seeing people on social media eliminating Fierceness from the win because no horse has ever won from the 17-hole! OK...

Well he is in 16 now anyway cause Encino scratched. But every year I have above, 2020 - 2023 (4 runnings) had horses scratch after post positions were drawn, so they shifted in or out. That is the problem right that I just realized. 2020 they didn't use the 1 post position though the Equibase chart said they did. I guarantee every post position stat shows that 1 was used that year, how many other years did they not use 1? So my numbers are off above for that running. And now Im going to have to rewatch the other ones to see what post position(s) they left empty. This is why post position stats are useless. There is NO WAY people are accounting for stuff like that. They are taking charts as fact and they aren't. Because the data that brunanas posted in the other thread of winners per post position, shows 16 hasn't won since Animal Kingdom, but Authentic, American Pharoah and Orb won from it(though the chart shows 15) because they left the 1 open all these years. I can't look through every year. But if the other numbers are right, that means post 16 has won 8 out of 51 times for a 15.7% win rate and makes it the best post position.

2020 - #1 scratched and pp left open, #6 scratched(7-9 shift in one), #10 scratched (11-18 shift in 2)
2021 - #16 scratched (17-20 shift in 1)
2022 - #20 scratched (no change to other horses, but Rich Strike was saddlecloth 21)
2023 - #9/10 scratched (11-14 shift in one), #15 scratched (16-18 shift in 2), #19/20 scratch (horses 21-23 enter field starting from post 16-18)

I'm sorry guys 2020 is off completely. I used the chart on Equibase but no one actually broke from post 1. Corrected stats.

1 - na / 8 / 5 / 5
2 - 5 / 11 / 14 / 16
3 - 7 / 14 / 2 / 2
4 - 6 / 6 / 20 / 10
5 - 10 / 10 / 8 / 7
6 - 13 / 4 / 15 / 14
7 - 15 / 1 / 13 / 13
8 - 3 / 19 / 17 / 1
9 - 9 / 2 / 9 / 4
10 - 11 / 5 / 3 / 17
11 - 14 / 17 / 19 / 11
12 - 12 / 7 / 12 / 3
13 - 8 / 13 / 4 / 8
14 - 4 / 3 / 6 / 6
15 - 2 / 16 / 16 / 9
16 - 1 / 9 / 18 / 18
17 - na / 15 / 11 / 12
18 - na / 18 / 7 / 15
19 - na / 12 / 10 / na
20 - na / na / 1 / na

I watched the breaks back to 2007: PP 1 wasn't used in 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020 and somehow 3 of those years post 16 won. This throws off all stats people use because its not accounted for. Stats are meaningless when they aren't right.

[Cigarillo]

Fierceness is easily the best of the bunch and wouldn't be shocked if he won by a few lengths. I think people are making too much of a fuss and his losses are being blown way out of proportion. They're doing that in my opinion because of how good he really is and what's he's capable of.

That being said, my non-obvious pick is Just A Touch. I can see him taking another leap and that leap being enough to win. He's been improving every race and has talent. A step up from him can give him the Derby.

My longshot choice is Endlessly. Solid speed , not top end by any means. Not a complete prayer of a horse pick and has some talent. It would also be cool to see a turf horse win the Derby. Finally, Rispoli is my guy in SoCal and I'm playing favorites with this choice.

[Missbeholder]

So now poor Stronghold breaks from the horrific 17 hole! Anyone who liked him in post #18 in the Derby can throw up their hands in total defeat because he NOW stands no chance!

What a joke!

[Flanders]

So now poor Stronghold breaks from the horrific 17 hole! Anyone who liked him in post #18 in the Derby can throw up their hands in total defeat because he NOW stands no chance!

What a joke!

LOL I really hope you are joking.

The post position stuff is BS. That was what my posts were trying to show. None of the stats are right, who is to say a horse hasn't won from post 17. They don't keep track of it right. I can't go through 150 Kentucky Derbys to see if the posts are right. If a horse is good enough and gets a proper trip he should be fine. If the 16 and 18 can win, why the hell couldn't the 17? It just doesn't make any sense to me thinking a horse can't win from a post position. Now if this was before 2020 and the field was full, I can say yes a horse from post 1 probably wouldn't win because the way it was positioned was awful.

[katmandu]

It would also be cool to see a turf horse win the Derby.

Animal Kingdom would like to have a word with you.....This was his first dirt race (he qualified by winning the Spiral Stakes, now the Jeff Ruby), and his only 3 dirt starts were the TC series. He was a freaky talent of a horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJJxQ6fA0yQ

[Flanders]

It would also be cool to see a turf horse win the Derby.

Animal Kingdom would like to have a word with you.....This was his first dirt race (he qualified by winning the Spiral Stakes, now the Jeff Ruby), and his only 3 dirt starts were the TC series. He was a freaky talent of a horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJJxQ6fA0yQ

Barbaro was also a turf horse, or he won his first 3 starts on the turf.

[Tessablue]

Animal Kingdom was a really special horse. He could have won the BC Mile with a better trip, and what a double that would have been. Worth noting that he (and Barbaro, and Big Brown, who was quite good on turf as well) had an outstanding work at CD before the race.

The post position stuff is BS. That was what my posts were trying to show. None of the stats are right, who is to say a horse hasn't won from post 17. They don't keep track of it right. I can't go through 150 Kentucky Derbys to see if the posts are right. If a horse is good enough and gets a proper trip he should be fine. If the 16 and 18 can win, why the hell couldn't the 17? It just doesn't make any sense to me thinking a horse can't win from a post position. Now if this was before 2020 and the field was full, I can say yes a horse from post 1 probably wouldn't win because the way it was positioned was awful.

Thanks for sorting through the mess and putting together the numbers... totally agreed, it is pretty much all nonsense. To the extent that post position matters, it is completely dependent on the individual horse and race shapes. Hopefully we hear less about the post 17 thing with Fierceness moving inside, but it's all very silly.

[Luna326]

Animal Kingdom also won the 2013 Dubai World Cup on dirt.

[Cigarillo]

It would also be cool to see a turf horse win the Derby.

Animal Kingdom would like to have a word with you.....This was his first dirt race (he qualified by winning the Spiral Stakes, now the Jeff Ruby), and his only 3 dirt starts were the TC series. He was a freaky talent of a horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJJxQ6fA0yQ

Great point. Huge oversight on my part.

[Missbeholder]

Animal Kingdom also won the 2013 Dubai World Cup on dirt.

Animal Kingdom's Dubai World Cup win was on the old Tapeta synthetic surface at Meydan before they installed the new dirt track. His Triple Crown starts were his only races on real dirt.

[Spahny]

My longshot choice is Endlessly. Solid speed , not top end by any means. Not a complete prayer of a horse pick and has some talent. It would also be cool to see a turf horse win the Derby. Finally, Rispoli is my guy in SoCal and I'm playing favorites with this choice.

Endlessly will probably be an across the board bet for me. Just A Touch and Catching Freedom can both win at fair odds. I believe that Fierceness might regress in the Derby but don't pay any attention to me. I'm just getting started on this.

I feel like a newbie here. Churchill Downs Derby Site was a bit a struggle for me. I'm only now learning the names of the horses and I had to give up on CD Inc. as a study tool. The glorifed infomercial known to some as Fan Duel would rather sell betting the pick 4 to clients who only just recently figured out what a pick 4 is. Great advice team. Guaranteed built in profit.