A certainty or the first to be safely crossed off the list? This year’s renewal of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury has been dominated, in more ways than one, by Denman.

The topweight has to carry 11st 12lb, the same weight that he made light of to win the race two years ago. However, as Denman is rated 13lbs higher than two years ago this promises to be a more searching test as he attempts to become only the third horse to win the Hennessy twice. Given that the other two were Mandarin (1957 and ’61) and Arkle (1964 and ’65) he would be keeping good company.

Denman will have 20 other runners keeping him company at the start with some well-handicapped rivals among the lower weights in what is always one of the most hotly contested handicaps of the season.

The other worry is whether Denman can be ready for such a test. Two years ago he came to the race without a prep run, because of a lack of suitable ground last month, and having been restricted to a racecourse gallop at Exeter.

The question this year, having had a similar preparation, is just how close Denman is to the imperious “Tank”  - as part-owner Harry Findlay describes him – who took this race as part of a nine-race unbeaten streak that culminated in his victory in the 2007 Cheltenham Gold Cup?

That Gold Cup win, 20 months ago, was the nine-year-old’s last and his start to last season was delayed until February because of a fibrillating heart problem. He put up a valiant effort when 13 lengths second to top stable companion Kauto Star in the Gold Cup, but then took a crashing fall at Aintree in April in the totesport Bowl.

The doubts over just how close Denman may be to his best form can be balanced by the fact that he is now 8lbs lower than his career-high handicap rating. It is also worth noting that his trainer, Paul Nicholls, is a man whose frankness with the betting public is a masterclass for his brethren. 

Having said that, Denman is a hard horse to assess in terms of fitness purely from his work on the gallops, Nicholls believes that he has the horse somewhere near to the level of two years ago. The memory of the moment in the Hennessy when Denman jumped his way to the front at the eighth fence and then proceeded to grind a competitive field into the turf for an 11-length victory suggests that he is still the force to be reckoned with, while Ballyfitz – a promising fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham two weeks ago – could be the one to profit if Denman fails to live up to expectations.

The expectations for Big Buck’s have changed in the last 12 months and he goes into the sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle as the leading staying hurdler around. Last year he was in contention jumping the last fence in the Hennessy, only to unseat his rider.

That race prompted Nicholls to switch the horse to hurdles since when he has been unbeaten in four runs, including the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and it would be a major shock if he failed in this race.

Cheltenham has not proved such fertile terrain for Binocular. He has finished runner-up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and third in the Champion Hurdle in the last two seasons. However, he is unbeaten in five starts over hurdles for Nicky Henderson, whose hurdlers have a 24% strike-rate this season, and the flatter course at Newcastle should suit Binocular when he lines up for the wbx.com ‘Fighting Fifth’ Hurdle.

Paul Wheeler