Tester gets the Abbey habit

Impressing the handicapper is not usually what a trainer has at the top of his priorities but Aidan O’Brien will doubtless be gratified to see that Matthew Tester, the BHA handicapper, has the same view as the ante-post markets.

They have St Nicholas Abbey at the head of the markets for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby and he has now emerged at the top of the pile for the two-year-old ratings when the World Thoroughbred Rankings were announced, which was no great surprise to anyone who had witnessed the colt’s near-flawless performance to win the Group One Racing Post Trophy last October.

All 11 runners had won their most recent start, five came into the race unbeaten and four were Group-race winners, yet St Nicholas Abbey routed them with the minimum of effort from Johnny Murtagh. He is rated at 124, a figure that is only bettered in recent years by New Approach, Johannesburg, Fasliyev and Xaar.

It was also a performance that gave Tester, the BHA’s juvenile expert, something to work with after a muddling period when the Dewhurst Stakes produced a blanket finish and the horses who had impressed so much in the summer were not there to press their claims in the major races of the autumn. Most notable among these were Arcano, the winner of the Prix Monry, and Canford Cliffs, who was a half-length third in that race but who had previously been a six-length winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

“It was looking like a really frustrating year because Canford Cliffs, really impressive in the Coventry, and Arcano, undefeated Group One winner, but none of them ran after August,” Tester said. “The Dewhurst finishes in a four-way photo – I was desperate for a clear-cut, knockout blow – and that’s what St Nicholas Abbey gave us in the Racing Post Trophy.”

O’Brien’s supporters may draw comfort from those words but, despite winning Group One races by the sack load, the trainer’s record in the Derby is not as good as one might expect. Sure, only Sea The Stars prevented him from achieving an unprecedented clean sweep in the race last season but, since his debut in the race in 1998, O’Brien has saddled 41 runners for a return of two winners. In the same period Sir Michael Stoute has achieved the same return from a total of 11 runners and John Oxx, the trainer of Sea The Stars, has the remarkable statistics of two winners from just three contestants.

However, Tester firmly believes that the victory in the Racing Post Trophy marks St Nicholas Abbey apart. “The reality is that his rating is higher than that of either Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral who won the race previously and all went on to win the Derby. And six of the last seven horses to top our classifications have won multiple big races at three, so it’s long odds-on that St Nicholas Abbey has another big win in him and it could easily be the Derby.

“At the two-furlong marker and everybody else has pressed the button and Mr Murtagh is restraining the horse – delaying and delaying – and when he asked he really went for it. He just has all the qualities you’re looking for in a champion.

“It’s a great relief to see that performance. He’d already put up a great run in Ireland, in the Beresford Stakes, where he beat Passion For Gold – who went on to win a Group One in France by six lengths. So there was every reason to think he was going to be a top-class horse and he certainly was.”

The only caveat for St Nicholas Abbey may be whether he has the stamina for 12 furlongs as Cascata, his full-sister appeared not to last out when run over that distance at Newmarket in September.

Stamina may restrict both Arcano and Canford Cliffs in terms of classic pretentions beyond the 2000 Guineas but their case in terms of quality was argued most eloquently on their behalf by Special Duty. The filly, who split the two colts in the Morny, went on to win the Cheveley Park Stakes and become the champion filly. Looking back on the Morny, Tester preferred to see the glass half full as opposed to the alternative. “Well, there were five of them all covered by a good-sized blanket, which normally means they’re not great horses,” Tester explained. “We didn’t see Arcano again, we didn’t see Canford Cliffs again but we did see Special Duty, who went on to be our champion filly.”

Sometimes the potential three-year-old champions can be found lodged some way down the juvenile list and there was one such prospect that Tester noted. “The one that’s definitely in my notebook is called Workforce. It’s a Michael Stoute horse who won by six lengths a maiden at Goodwood. The horse that came second that day, Oasis Dancer, went on to win the Tattersalls Timeform Million beating 13 previous winners. And Workforce, who lost six lengths out of the stalls, won by six lengths so he’s got to be something special. ”

Stoute has been a master of progressing a three-year-old quietly – Conduit won a handicap at Epsom on Derby day and then went on to win the St Leger and Breeders’ Cup Turf – but one suspects that Workforce may have other priorities.

WORLD THOROUGHBRED RANKINGS

TOP TWO-YEAR-OLDS

Paul Wheeler