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Then Zaynar was favourite for the Champion Hurdle but, after a defeat in trial race at Kelso run on desperate ground, he has been passed over by Barry Geraghty, in favour of the reigning champion Punjabi, and Tony McCoy, who has been claimed for the resurgent Binocular.

So step forward Andrew Tinkler. Geraghty has remained loyal to a horse who has done well for him while Nicky Henderson and Zaynar’s owners have shown a similar quality in handing the ride to Tinkler, who rode Zaynar to win at Ascot in November.

Come Tuesday someone may finds themselves rewarded.

Despite losing much of January to the freeze, there were only six initial entries for Saturday’s Toteswinger Contenders Hurdle, meaning that the race was re-opened until this morning. That brought a final total of eight but the lack of contenders may be a silver lining for Nicky Henderson as he tries to contend with a so far lacklustre season from one of his stable stars.

Binocular was favourite for last year’s Champion Hurdle and was beaten only a neck and a head into third. By comparison he was barely sighted when he was fifth to Go Native in the “Fighting Fifth” Hurdle at Newcastle and only came a little nearer to the centre of the picture when he finished third to Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park.

“We’ve got a big weekend coming up this weekend – if the weather will allow us,” said Henderson, who also has Zaynar and Affsoun in the race. “We’re taking this route because I’m pretty sure he wants more room, a big galloping track and hopefully a good pace. At Newcastle, and to a degree Kempton – although that was better – the season hasn’t quite got off to the start we anticipated with him, but I’m hoping we’re getting there.”

“We’ve been trying very hard to analyse the whole thing. He does seem very good at the moment. That’s not saying he wasn’t good before but we feel there’s been a bit missing. He’s sparky enough. It’s as though he’s not quite as quick as he once was. He’s grown into a big, strong horse. He shouldn’t have lost any of his speed and has matured.

“There’s no point pretending he hasn’t been disappointing but he ran a respectable race at Kempton and was coming back at the end.”

Binocular may be dropping down the pecking order not just overall but even within his own stable. Zaynar, last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, has now become Henderson’s standard bearer for the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle. But, while he may be carrying the trainer’s primary hopes he may not be adorned with cheekpieces for his likely prep race, the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on February 18th.

Zaynar, unbeaten in five starts over hurdles, wore cheekpieces in the Triumph in order to sharpen him up, having worked lazily at home, but has not for his two victories this season at Ascot and Cheltenham. “My initial reaction would be not to put cheek pieces on him at Kelso and keep them up our sleeve,” Henderson explained. “He can hit flat spots and he does genuinely stay. Sometimes when the pace hots up a bit he can just get tapped for toe for 10 strides. It just keeps him on the bridle and focusing on what is ahead of him and keeps him sharper.”

Keeping a sharp edge on Punchestowns has been another headache for Henderson. He had to pull the horse out from an intended race at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day because of concerns about the ground and now Henderson’s concern is to make up for the loss of time before Punchestowns run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Punchestowns has been restricted to one run over fences so far, at Newbury in November, but Henderson wants to run him in the Grade One Totepool Challengers Novices’ Chase. “He’ll run at Sandown on Saturday and all is in good order. Newbury went well, we’ve missed a whole stack of things since then. He was at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but we got cold feet. We’ve got to get in there now because I’d like two more runs and if we can get in now we can go again in three weeks’ time.

“He’s a big horse and he needs plenty of work. When Big Buck’s beat him in the Cleeve Hurdle I thought I was short that day and we would turn the tables in March but I was wrong. He needs a couple more runs.”

Henderson must be hoping that Binocular just needs one more chance to prove himself. 

Paul Wheeler

Having failed to even make the frame in the past two renewals of the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, Irish trainers appear set to play the numbers game this time around with 21 of the 34 entries for the race.

Heading the challenge is the Noel Meade-trained Go Native, who is seeking a second win at the Festival having won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last season. The seven-year-old has already won two Grade One races in Britain this season, following up a comfortable victory in the “Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle” in November with a hard-fought success over Starluck in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton the following month.

Go Native will not be seen out again until the Champion Hurdle but two of Ireland’s other main challengers – Solwhit and Sublimity – appear set to re-oppose in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

Willie Mullins, Ireland’s champion trainer has a trio of entries although, of those the one for former ante-post favourite Hurricane Fly looks hopeful at best after he sustained a ligament injury last month. Hurricane Fly has yet to make it to the Festival, with a splint problem ruling him out of last year’s Supreme Novices, but Quevega did run and win the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle although she needs to improve by about a stone if she is to become only the third mare to win the Champion Hurdle after Dawn Run (1984) and Flakey Dove (1994). His third entry, Thousand Stars, has won his last two starts and is quietly fancied for the MCR Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday.

The biggest ripple on the markets this week came with the news that Philip Fenton has given an entry to the exciting novice Dunguib, who sauntered to a 10-length victory in last year’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper and was an equally impressive winner of the Grade One Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on his latest start.

The home defence is set to be headed by a trio of horses trained by Nicky Henderson. Punjabi, the reigning champion hurdler, is due to run in the Grade Two sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock Park on Saturday, while Zaynar, last year’s JCB Triumph Hurdle winner who has posted two impressive Grade Two victories so far this season, is expected out next in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on February 18th.

The third member of the Henderson triumvirate, Binocular, is owned by JP McManus but the man  whose famous green and gold silks were carried to three Champion Hurdle wins when Istabraq was the Irish banker has his chances based this side of the Irish Sea. Henderson has not been too despondent over Binocular’s runs this season, believing that he is improving as the campaign goes on and will be ready for his next run, the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown on February 6th.  Frank Berry, racing manager to McManus, said: “Binocular’s still on course for Sandown and Nicky’s very happy with him at the moment. He came out of the Christmas Hurdle in good shape and I thought that he ran a cracker there – he wasn’t beaten too far and it was a much better performance than Newcastle.

“We didn’t have any real excuses at Kempton so he’s a little to find on Go Native on the formbook. We’ll get Sandown out of the way before focusing on the Festival but he looks in good form at the moment and we couldn’t be happier with him.”

McManus may also be represented by French import Rock Noir, who recently joined the stable of Jonjo O’Neill after rattling off five consecutive wins at Auteuil for Marcel Rolland last year. On his latest start, the five-year-old got the better of Jumbo Rio in a thrilling finish to the Grade One Prix Renaud du Vivier in November.

 “Rock Noir hasn’t been back in training for very long and we would need to get a run into him before Cheltenham before deciding whether to go for the Champion Hurdle. He’s settled in well at Jonjo’s but we haven’t got any firm plans for him at the minute.

“His form in France is very good and it’ll be interesting to see how he stacks up against the English horses when he does run.”

 Paul Wheeler

A look at the ante-post markets for the four feature races for the Cheltenham Festival shows that there is a need for something to stir as the Paul Nicholls yard has a stranglehold on three of them.

His dominance of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, following the dominating performances of Kauto Star and Denman this season, was underlined when What A Friend, who rates only as a first reserve for team Nicholls, beat the best that Ireland had to offer in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last week.

Paul Nolan’s Joncol did the best of the home team in finishing third and he summed up the situation when he said: “It’s told me we’re a long way behind the best of the English. I’d say he’s two stone below the best.”

At least there is still the match element to provide competition, and those looking for a possible long-shot could do worse than look at Imperial Commander. True, he put up a dismal performance in the King George VI Chase but it was exactly the same last year and he ended up winning the Ryanair Chase at the festival three months later. For the record, Imperial Commander has a 55% strike-rate at Cheltenham and may well be running there at the end of the month.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is pretty much a one-horse market, providing that Master Minded comes back from his rub injury, and there is little more activity in the World Hurdle with Big Buck’s the only horse for bucks, pounds or euros.

All in all there would be more life in a tramp’s vest so the news that someone, somewhere had been laying out the cash to back Mikael D’Haguenet for the Festival should not have caused that much of a ripple on the betting waters. He has been in the front rank for either the Arkle Trophy or RSA Chase since the betting for either race began but now he is also entering the running for the Champion Hurdle market.  

Not bad for a horse who has yet to run this season but, perhaps, not such a strange move either given the current state of the market for the Champion Hurdle. The six-year-old, who missed the first half of the season recovering from a splint problem, was unbeaten in six starts over hurdles for Willie Mullins. Three of those victories came in Grade One races including the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and Land Rover Champion Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals.

Zaynar is favourite for the Champion Hurdle as much because he has done nothing wrong this season rather than how much he has done right. His last run, over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham last month, saw coast home six lengths clear of Cape Tribulation. Whether Zeynar justifies his position in the market, for beating a horse who is rated 17lbs his inferior at level weights, is debatable but Cape Tribulation was then six and a quarter lengths fourth to Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park, so the jury is still out on that one. 

No definitive judgement will be made by Philip Fenton, trainer of Dunguib, his unbeaten novice hurdler who was the Bumper at Cheltenham, last year. The Supreme Novices — for which he is favourite — remains the most likely target and it would be asking a lot for a horse to take on the Champion Hurdle in what would likely to be only his fifth run over timber.

However, Mullins has what is in many ways an enviable dilemma because Mikael D’Haguenet already has experience of chasing from when he was trained in France but has yet to win, so any further delay in starting a novice campaign this season may tempt his trainer into revising plans and stick to hurdles for this season.

He will hardly be put off by the previous record of winners of the Ballymore [now run as Neptune] Hurdle as both Istabraq, in 1997, and Hardy Eustace, in 2003, won that race before dropping in distance to win the Champion Hurdle.

In a season when the Champion Hurdle picture is about as clear as mud it is an option that may not prove to be silly at all.

Paul Wheeler

Caracciola had just become the oldest horse in modern times to win a Royal Ascot race in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, the longest race in the Flat calendar. However, there was no sign of winning trainer Nicky Henderson to welcome his first winner at the royal meeting.

It was left to Caracciola’s owner, Piers Pottinger, to explain Henderson’s absence in favour of a trip to Scotland. “The trainer is fishing,” Pottinger said. “I’ve banned him from turning up because Caracciola only wins a big race when he’s not here.”

Cue laughter at the eccentricity of it all coming after Henderson, 59 but going on about 19 in terms of enthusiasm, had enjoyed one of his best jump seasons, breaking both a century of winners and £2 million prize money for the first time.

However, the laughter had long since died away a month later when news broke of the disciplinary hearings at which Henderson was deemed in breach of four Rules of racing after a horse owned by the Queen, Moonlit Path, had tested positive for a banned substance following a novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

Henderson was fined £40,000 and received a three-month suspension from having runners from his Lambourn stable. The ban ended in early October, just when the trainer would have been getting into gear for the core part of the jumps season.

At the time there was a question over how much the ban, or at least the adverse publicity generated by it, might have affected Henderson. No-one who has come into contact with Henderson during a blemish-free training career that stretches back over 30 years believed that the substance, an anti-bleeding drug called transemic acid, had been administered with anything but the best intentions in terms of horse welfare, not that such knowledge made the time any easier for Henderson. “It made me feel like a common criminal,” he said in an interview with The Times just before his ban ended. “It was the worst experience I’ve ever had. Just terrifying.”

Any terrors that Henderson may have had in terms of the loyalty of his owners were unjustified as not only did everyone stay, but Seven Barrows has 150 horses – the most that Henderson has ever gone to war with and, so far, most of the battles are being won.

It took just 10 days for Henderson to saddle his first winner and since then his statistics have been better than ever. There may have been some high-profile reverses for Binocular in the “Fighting Fifth” Hurdle at Newcastle in November and Punjabi in the boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham, although Zaynar’s victory on the same card balanced the books and all three still look likely contenders to give Henderson a fifth winner in the Champion Hurdle next March.

His season’s strike-rate stands at 32%, which is better than his recent overall mark of 21%. In keeping with those four Champion Hurdle victories, Henderson’s strike-rate in that discipline normally slightly exceeds the performance of his chasers. This time, however, while the hurdlers are on a strike-rate of 32% his chasers are excelling at 39%, which is even better than that of Paul Nicholls’s chasers. 

Those chasing a profit should note that Henderson’s run of form shows little signing of waning, as evidenced by him saddling nine winners in the previous seven days and he is often the trainer to follow at Kempton’s two-day Christmas fixture.

Henderson’s overall record at Kempton is a very competitive 28% but his strike-rate at this meeting over the last four years (including 2005 when it was run at Sandown) is 33%.

The man to follow? He makes it look as easy as shooting fish in a barrel.

He had just unseated Sam Thomas at the last fence of the Hennessy Gold Cup, having been bang in contention, and then Nicholls came up with what he admitted at the time was the “mad idea” of sending the horse back hurdling.

 The rest, as they say, is history and Big Buck’s extended his winning sequence to five in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month. It was not much of a contest because nothing was able to get Big Buck’s out of second gear and, aside from a slight stumble jumping the last flight, Ruby Walsh could have been hauled in front of the stewards for schooling in public were it not for the fact that Big Buck’s beat Lough Derg by seven lengths. 

“How he won that is how he’s been working at home – he just ambles along like that,” Nicholls said. “Physically he’s a different horse to what he was last year. Horses like him and Kauto need a run to sharpen them up. I was a bit nervous if he’d be a bit lazy – you could run him in a seller and he’d only win a length.

“But he’s a bit more mature and he’s done that really nicely. Ability-wise he’s probably as good as anything we’ve got. He doesn’t jump a fence as well as some and while I’ve got Kauto there’s no point. We might try in the future.”

More immediately Big Buck’s is one of 11 confirmed for the Grade One BGC Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. Among his potential rivals is Diamond Harry, a Grade One winner in his novice season, who made an impressive return this season when making light of top weight in a handicap at Haydock Park in November.

That persuaded Diamond Harry’s trainer, Nick Williams, to postpone plans to send the horse novice chasing with a view to a crack at the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and this race should give Williams a fair indication if those aspirations have any validity.  

Alan King’s yard is still taking time to recover from the muscle enzyme problem that has been the cause of his disrupted season so far but he has two possible runners. Karabak was six lengths second to Zaynar in last month’s  Ascot Hurdle, the form of which has been boosted by Zaynar’s follow-up win at Cheltenham on Saturday, and is stepped up to three miles once more while Katchit, the winner of the 2008 Champion Hurdle, would be running at the distance for the first time.

All distances seem to come the same to Lough Derg, won this in 2007, and would be seeking a fourth course win if his trainer, David Pipe, elects to run.

Paul Wheeler

The boylesports.com International Hurdle brought together Nicky Henderson’s Champion Hurdle winner, Punjabi, and Celestial Halo, who he had beaten by just a neck. This time the places were well and truly reversed with Celestial Halo finishing 11 lengths ahead of Punjabi. Trouble was that Khyber Kim was another two and a quarter lengths in front of the pair of them.

Cue instant shredding of ante-post markets and step forward Zaynar, another of the seemingly endless supply of classy Henderson hurdlers. He was promoted past the likes of Binocular – another Henderson horse who somewhat blotted his copybook when finishing only fifth in the “Fighting Fifth” Hurdle at Newcastle last month – and Irish contender Hurricane Fly – who had been beaten first time out this season at Punchestown – to head the ante-post list.

And that was before he ran in the Unicoin Homes Relkeel Hurdle over an extended two and a half miles. As an unbeaten Triumph Hurdle winner the bookmakers were taking no chances and made a final offer of 1-5 as the starting tape went up but, jumping the last, it appeared a shrewd enough investment as Zaynar coasted home six lengths clear of Cape Tribulation.

Whether Zeynar justifies his position in the market, for beating a horse who is rated 17lbs his inferior at level weights, can be argued either way. Those making the case against can point to the way in which Zaynar can seem to lose concentration during the early part of his races, only paying attention when Barry Geraghty started to get serious with him.

Those wishing to state the case for can suggest that if Zaynar can win like that he may well be a seriously good horse and it should be noted that Henderson has chosen not to use the cheekpieces that Zaynar wore in the Triumph for either of his wins this season, which have been at distances significantly above two miles. The plan is to keep that measure in reserve for when the horse drops back in distance, which he will because any thoughts of a move to the staying division are not in the trainer’s mind and it should not be forgotten that two champion hurdlers – Granville Again and Morely Street – both won this race as well.

Punjabi is rapidly becoming the forgotten champion hurdler with punters but Henderson said before the race that this was the starting point and, as he proved three years running with the fragile See You Then, there is no trainer better at having a horse ready for the big day.

The news from Ireland was that Willie Mullins is holding a watching brief with Hurricane Fly before making a decision over whether to run him in the December Hurdle at Leopardstown . “I’m trying to get Hurricane Fly out at Leopardstown at Christmas. He had one bit of work last week, but none this week as I just thought he was a bit under the weather,” Mullins said this weekend. “He’s in great form but he gave a cough or two during the week and that just upset me, so I’m minding him rather than trying to get him to Leopardstown. If we can get him to Leopardstown, that’s what I want to do.”

Which still leaves Khyber Kim, who is proving to be one of the revelations of the season. Clearly he was well handicapped when he won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and this victory represented a whole new level of performance for a horse who appears to have turned a corner after a series of health and injury problems. The premise that he has reached the peak of his potential may yet prove to be wrong.

Paul Wheeler

Last season’s Cheltenham Festival was a memorable one for the champion trainer – he won three of the four major prizes with Kauto Star (Cheltenham Gold Cup), Master Minded (Queen Mother Champion Chase) and Big Buck’s (World Hurdle) but it was the one that got away that will have exercised his mind the most.

Nicholls has always been a trainer of chasers first and foremost as his strike-rate for this season (26% to 22%) in favour of his chasers indicates, but in Celestial Halo he has a horse capable of competing for the top prizes, starting with the Grade Two boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.

In last season’s Champion Hurdle, Celestial Halo was beaten by just a neck by Punjabi, thus denying Nicholls an unprecedented clean sweep of the Festival’s most glittering prizes. The pair meet again now on the same weight terms but with Celestial Halo having just about everything else in his favour.

Having finished last season with a below-par run behind Solwhit at Aintree, Celestial Halo came back last month to win a Grade Two limited handicap at Wincanton by 10 lengths. By comparison Punjabi has not been seen out since being beaten a short-head –again by Solwhit  – in the Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last April. He is, according to trainer Nicky Henderson “ a very stuffy horse” and an intended starting point of the “Fighting Fifth” Hurdle at Newcastle last month had to be scrapped because Punjabi was not quite ready for a first run of the season.

Henderson has already gone on record as saying that Punjabi will improve for this run and, with one eye on the Champion Hurdle in March, the trainer is unlikely to be too disappointed if his horse comes up a little short this time, which can be said of the rest of the five runners in the field who are rated at least 15lbs inferior to Celestial Halo by the BHA handicapper.

However, with a strike-rate of 30% for the season, Henderson is not out of the winner’s enclosure for very long these days and should be there again with Zaynar in the Grade Two Unicoin Homes Relkeel Hurdle. Unbeaten in three runs over hurdles as a juvenile, that culminated in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, Zaynar picked up this season where he left off by winning a Grade Two hurdle at Ascot last month.

That was his first significant step up in distance beyond two miles and he handled it without any problems and should have no problem doing the same over a field that is unlikely to test him.

The winner of the boylesports.com Gold Cup is unlikely to have anything like such an easy run. The run that Nicholls has enjoyed in the major chases on the last three Saturday’s cannot be easily dismissed and he is three-handed in this with joint-topweight Gwanako and the well-backed pair of  Chapoturgeon and Poquelin.

However, Gwanako has plenty enough weight, and although Chapoturgeon won over course and distance at the Festival, two falls from his last three runs hardly inspires much confidence. There has to be a fair amount of confidence behind Poquelin, who looked like a young horse going places when four and a half lengths second to Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham four weeks ago, and Atouchbetweenacara, who has a big chance but could be his own worst enemy if he fails into his old trait of running too keenly.

Tamarinbleu likes nothing better than to be at the head of the field but, on his day, he has a habit of staying there too. He won this race two years ago, likes a bit of cut in the ground and is carrying just 3lbs more this time than he did when he won in 2007.

He also appears to be coming back to form as evidenced by his first run of the season, in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in October, when he was beaten just a head by Deep Purple who then went on to frank the form so impressively by winning the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Thursday.

Paul Wheeler