An earlier than usual start to the silly season or the first inspired punt of the decade?

A look at the ante-post markets for the four feature races for the Cheltenham Festival shows that there is a need for something to stir as the Paul Nicholls yard has a stranglehold on three of them.

His dominance of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, following the dominating performances of Kauto Star and Denman this season, was underlined when What A Friend, who rates only as a first reserve for team Nicholls, beat the best that Ireland had to offer in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last week.

Paul Nolan’s Joncol did the best of the home team in finishing third and he summed up the situation when he said: “It’s told me we’re a long way behind the best of the English. I’d say he’s two stone below the best.”

At least there is still the match element to provide competition, and those looking for a possible long-shot could do worse than look at Imperial Commander. True, he put up a dismal performance in the King George VI Chase but it was exactly the same last year and he ended up winning the Ryanair Chase at the festival three months later. For the record, Imperial Commander has a 55% strike-rate at Cheltenham and may well be running there at the end of the month.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is pretty much a one-horse market, providing that Master Minded comes back from his rub injury, and there is little more activity in the World Hurdle with Big Buck’s the only horse for bucks, pounds or euros.

All in all there would be more life in a tramp’s vest so the news that someone, somewhere had been laying out the cash to back Mikael D’Haguenet for the Festival should not have caused that much of a ripple on the betting waters. He has been in the front rank for either the Arkle Trophy or RSA Chase since the betting for either race began but now he is also entering the running for the Champion Hurdle market.  

Not bad for a horse who has yet to run this season but, perhaps, not such a strange move either given the current state of the market for the Champion Hurdle. The six-year-old, who missed the first half of the season recovering from a splint problem, was unbeaten in six starts over hurdles for Willie Mullins. Three of those victories came in Grade One races including the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and Land Rover Champion Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals.

Zaynar is favourite for the Champion Hurdle as much because he has done nothing wrong this season rather than how much he has done right. His last run, over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham last month, saw coast home six lengths clear of Cape Tribulation. Whether Zeynar justifies his position in the market, for beating a horse who is rated 17lbs his inferior at level weights, is debatable but Cape Tribulation was then six and a quarter lengths fourth to Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park, so the jury is still out on that one. 

No definitive judgement will be made by Philip Fenton, trainer of Dunguib, his unbeaten novice hurdler who was the Bumper at Cheltenham, last year. The Supreme Novices — for which he is favourite — remains the most likely target and it would be asking a lot for a horse to take on the Champion Hurdle in what would likely to be only his fifth run over timber.

However, Mullins has what is in many ways an enviable dilemma because Mikael D’Haguenet already has experience of chasing from when he was trained in France but has yet to win, so any further delay in starting a novice campaign this season may tempt his trainer into revising plans and stick to hurdles for this season.

He will hardly be put off by the previous record of winners of the Ballymore [now run as Neptune] Hurdle as both Istabraq, in 1997, and Hardy Eustace, in 2003, won that race before dropping in distance to win the Champion Hurdle.

In a season when the Champion Hurdle picture is about as clear as mud it is an option that may not prove to be silly at all.

Paul Wheeler