Absence makes the case grow stronger
The more things change the more they stay the same. The market for the Champion Hurdle was given a mighty shake-up over the weekend but there were some mixed signals.
Given that the market leader, Zaynar, is not due to run until Kelso in the middle of next month, this weekend’s races were always likely to produce a new favourite as punters clamour to grab any passing piece of form that appears likely to keep them afloat come the Cheltenham Festival and Solwhit’s victory in the Grade One Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown yesterday had just the effect.
He is not a horse who has really captured the public’s imagination but it is hard to argue with six wins from his last seven starts – five of which have come in Grade Ones. The case he put forward here looked convincing enough in a race that was run at a solid enough pace on testing ground.
It may be an accident of geography as much as anything else that most of his form has been on soft ground but the manner in which he picked up the pace from the last suggested that two miles at Cheltenham in a true-run race like the Champion should play to his strengths.
The yielding ground may well not have played to the strengths of Celestial Halo, who could yet show better on faster ground, but this run, beaten nine lengths into fourth, did look like another nail in the coffin for the form of last year’s Champion Hurdle.
The previous one had been driven in on Saturday when Punjabi, the reigning champion hurdler, was beaten for the second time this season in the Grade Two sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock Park.
Medermit’s victory puts him into the Champion Hurdle picture but he was receiving 4lbs from Punjabi, just as he had when he was eight lengths ahead of Punjabi in the Grade Two International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December, which does suggest that Punjabi in progressing, but at what rate? The two defeats for stable companion Binocular this season means that the first six home in last year’s Champion have managed just two victories between them in 19 subsequent starts.
Medermit’s form ties in with Go Native, who beat him a neck in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival, but also with Khyber Kim, who beat him three lengths at Cheltenham in November (when receiving 3lbs) and then five-and-a-quarter lengths at level weights in the International.
True, Khyber Kim has never really held his form together for three consecutive runs but new riding tactics appear to be making a difference and his next run, in the totesport Trophy at Newbury next month, will go a long way to revealing just what he may be capable of achieving.
The achievements of Twist Magic this season have also been something of a revelation. When he won the Tingle Creek Chase it was assumed that he was marking time until stable companion Master Minded recovered from the rib injury that has kept him off the track since November.
However, his 12-length victory over Petit Robin, in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase, at Ascot offers a new level of performance, with the clock showing that the winning time was over nine seconds faster than the opening novice handicap on the card. Master Minded beat Petit Robin by 16 lengths in the previous year’s renewal and Twist Magic’s dismal record at Cheltenham (two falls and a 52-length beating in three attempts at the Festival) would not appear to augur well for his chances in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, but the gap between the two Paul Nicholls horses would appear to be closing. How rapidly may be further gleaned if Master Minded is deemed ready to return in the Game Spirit chase at Newbury on February 13th.
Just how much can be accurately gleaned from a four-runner novice hurdle is open to question but there was no doubt about the visual appeal of the victory of Peddlers Cross in the Grade Two race at Haydock. He beat Scriptwriter (rated 132) by 16 lengths with Radium (rated 131) another 10 lengths adrift of that. The only doubt is whether trainer Donald McCain will choose to go the two or two-and-a-half-mile route with this one for Cheltenham but, either way, four wins from as many starts over hurdles and an Irish point-to-point tell its own story.
Fifty days to go to the start of the Festival and the pot is boiling away nicely. No change there then.
Paul Wheeler
